Hurricane Katrina - I

Discussion in 'All About SoWal' started by Miss Kitty, Aug 24, 2005.

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  1. Excalibur

    Excalibur Guest

    Re: Hurricane Katrina

    WWW.WGTX.COM

    This Really STINKS - :sosad: THE LATEST FROM NHC

    ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL

    TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

    HURRICANE KATRINA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1130 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

    THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY DISCUSSION IS ONLY TO MODIFY THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITIES. RECENT DROPSONDE DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A SURFACE WIND OF 83 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST EYEWALL. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 971 MB ALSO CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 88 KT SURFACE WINDS. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 85 KT...OR 100 MPH.

    GIVEN THE RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE AND THE SHARP PRESSURE DROP...RAPID INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTERWARDS...STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO NEAR CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH BY 72 HOURS APPEARS TO BE IN ORDER GIVEN THE VERY WARM GULF WATERS BENEATH THE HURRICANE AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR FORECAST TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT BY 48 HOURS. :shock:



    FORECASTER STEWART



    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



    INITIAL 26/1530Z 25.1N 82.2W 85 KT

    12HR VT 27/0000Z 25.2N 83.1W 90 KT

    24HR VT 27/1200Z 25.5N 84.3W 95 KT

    36HR VT 28/0000Z 26.2N 85.2W 100 KT

    48HR VT 28/1200Z 27.1N 85.9W 105 KT

    72HR VT 29/1200Z 29.5N 86.3W 110 KT :nono1:

    96HR VT 30/1200Z 34.5N 83.5W 35 KT...INLAND

    120HR VT 31/1200Z 40.5N 77.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND



     
  2. Smiling JOe

    Smiling JOe SoWal Expert

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    Re: Hurricane Katrina

    WGTX1280AM,
    I tried tuning in to you this morning but mostly received static. Are there any areas that you know pick up better reception than others?
     
  3. JB

    JB Beach Fanatic

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    Re: Hurricane Katrina

    While I am not taking much comfort in this, NOGAPS and GFDN have historically been the most accurate models. Right now, it looks as if there is no way the stom will hit east of us, so we need to pray it hits as far west of us as possible. South Louisiana would be the best scenario, as it is a largely unpopulated area.
     
    Last edited: Aug 26, 2005
  4. Beach Runner

    Beach Runner beats on hood

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    Re: Hurricane Katrina

    We didn't have a choice. We had renters coming in, and obviously they wouldn't want their views obstructed by plywood. We'd like to get permanent shutters, but with 73 windows/doors to cover, it's just too expensive.
     
  5. Smiling JOe

    Smiling JOe SoWal Expert

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    Re: Hurricane Katrina

    SIMPLIFY:D

    [​IMG]
    Hurricane Katrina taken Aug 26 2005
     
    Last edited: Aug 26, 2005
  6. Miss Kitty

    Miss Kitty Meow

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    Re: Hurricane Katrina

    73!!!! WOW...how long does it take to board them up? I am now counting the windows in my house here....that must be one heck of a house!!!
     
  7. Tenn.Guy

    Tenn.Guy Beach Comber

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    Re: Hurricane Katrina


    I hope this does not offend any locals, BUT I disagree with the quote above--

    A South Louisiana hit would likely be disastrous. A large hurricane that comes relatively close to New Orleans could result in a flood of "biblical" proportions in NO due to its below sea level elevation. The loss of wetlands to the ocean is already staggering in S. Louisiana, they don't need to lose anymore.

    While I definitely don't want another hurricane to hit the Florida peninsula, from an economic and human misery perspective, a hit from Destin or any point eastward for a couple of hundred miles would be much less disastrous than a direct hit on NO or another direct hit on Mobile or Pensacola. From the Destin area east/southeastward to Tampa, there is less industry and population effected than areas to the West.

    I am praying the darn thing will meet up earlier than expected with the cold front and the storm will not live up to the potential it currently seems to have. I don't want a hurricane to hit anywhere. But, it seems to me that it would be much better to hit an area populated primarily with second/vacation homes than come close to or directly hit a large city.
     
  8. Kurt Lischka

    Kurt Lischka Admin Staff Member

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    Re: Hurricane Katrina

    Wanting it to hit here or there is a pointless pursuit.

    New Orleans will get a big one someday and it will be horrible.
     
  9. Smiling JOe

    Smiling JOe SoWal Expert

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    Re: Hurricane Katrina

    Good Points. No one want it to hit anywhere, but we should hope for the least damage possible, even if it means taking one here in Walton Co.
     
  10. JB

    JB Beach Fanatic

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    Re: Hurricane Katrina

    Perhaps you need to read more closely before replying. I did not say I wanted it to hit New Orleans. You are correct in that a direct hit by a Cat 3 or 4 on New Orleans would be a disaster of biblical proportions. I have many friends there.

    I said SOUTH Louisiana. There is no good place for a hurricane to hit. No matter where it does hit, there will be damage. I understand the wetlands issue there - perhaps better than you do. But the area IS largely unpopulated. That is an undisputible fact.

    Sorry, but it is someone's else's turn to get one of these storms. Maybe it will continue due west into Mexico. Maybe it will peter out. Who knows?
     
    Last edited: Aug 26, 2005
  11. Camp Creek Kid

    Camp Creek Kid Christini Zambini

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    Re: Hurricane Katrina


    One of the most stressful things about these storms is knowing that if it doesn't hit you, it will hit somewhere and someone else. It is inappropriate to make judgements about where it would be good or bad for the storm to hit. Not all the homes here are second/vacation homes and it IS offensive to locals that you believe it would be better for the storm to hit here than somewhere else.

    I agree that it would be a very bad thing for the storm to hit New Orleans.
    It would also be a very bad thing for it to hit here because right now, I'm thinking of my family, neighbors, and community and wondering how our life will be different on Tuesday.

    I know many people who have felt very guilty about being relieved when Ivan and Dennis didn't make a direct hit on us. Why don't we all keep our opinions to ourselves and not talk about the advantages and disadvantages of landfall in a specific area. It is pointless.
     
  12. Smiling JOe

    Smiling JOe SoWal Expert

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    Re: Hurricane Katrina

    I think that several of you have summed it up nicely, the storm will go where it gets the fuel. Saying where it is best to hit is pointless without having control over the direction of the storm. If we focus on the things which we can control, we will have a more purposeful life.
     
  13. Seasider

    Seasider Beach Lover

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    Re: Hurricane Katrina

    It is going to be a long weekend watching the computer tracking models as the march of this thing turns northward towards our beaches.
     
  14. Camp Creek Kid

    Camp Creek Kid Christini Zambini

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    Re: Hurricane Katrina

    I need to get busy getting ready, but one more thing. I'm boycotting the national media's hurricane coverage (including the Weather Channel--sorry Jim) Stick with the local guys--WMBB might have their streaming again, don't know. The national coverage always portrays these storms like its doomesday. Its like the boy who cried wolf. All they do is incite panic and stress. We've all got plenty of time to take care of business and get out if we choose.
     
  15. Kurt Lischka

    Kurt Lischka Admin Staff Member

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    Re: Hurricane Katrina

    I'm glad you posted that. I think it was talked about a little the last time how they loop the stress.

    Have you noticed the new WC intro has a few secs of people getting blown away? :roll:
     
  16. pgurney

    pgurney Beach Fanatic

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    Re: Hurricane Katrina

    It looks like the UKMET and GFS models also just shifted west.
     
  17. Tenn.Guy

    Tenn.Guy Beach Comber

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    Re: Hurricane Katrina


    I thought New Orleans was in South Lousiana???

    Also, it would be much better for the storm to hit on the east side of NO than the west side where they would get the biggest storm surge.

    I do agree that we shouldn't wish these storms on anyone and that was really the point I was trying to make. Sorry about all you locals having to sweat another one out. But, there were numerous posts wishing that the storm would hit somewhere else. Why would you wish the storm on someone else. The area that can take the hit best from a broader economic standpoint is the eastern panhandle of Florida.
     
  18. wintersbk

    wintersbk Beach Fanatic

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    Re: Hurricane Katrina


    I'm not so sure that is true based on the volume of storms the panhandle has had to endure over the last 2 years.
     
  19. JB

    JB Beach Fanatic

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    Re: Hurricane Katrina

    By definition, the area known as "South Louisiana" constitutes the marshy area to the south of, and between, Houma and Lake Charles. South of that area, there is nothing but marsh for 50 miles to the gulf.

    For the record, I don't want it to hit ANYWHERE in the continintal U.S. If it does, however, I would just as soon it be somewhere, ANYWHERE other than here.

    I think you'll find that is the predominant opinion of this board.
     
  20. RiverOtter

    RiverOtter got any pics?

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    Re: Hurricane Katrina

    Past 2 years. Try the past 12 freakin months :bang: :bang: :bang:
     
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