Real Estate Supply

[SHELLY]

I'm sitting on several lots and houses now that were purchased 2.5 to 3 years ago before the drastic run up in prices. They will be priced to suit my needs, not the needs of the guy who bought last year. This is going on right now.

I read a quote (in Florida Realtor mag) from a local real estate agent who said that folks are buying up properties in the panhandle and using them like CDs. It's a good strategy in your case, but for those who've started last year...IMO...they're screwed.

 

[Santiago]

I read a quote (in Florida Realtor mag) from a local real estate agent who said that folks are buying up properties in the panhandle and using them like CDs. It's a good strategy in your case, but for those who've started last year...IMO...they're screwed.

Again, in some cases you are right but in many cases they will do fine. If their plan was to buy just any lot with no intention of building, and to flip it in the short term, you are dead on. If the lot has no build out, even at this past year's prices, and they are investing for the long term, they will still do great in my opinion.

 

[redfisher]

With sincerity and respects Shelly, you SO frequently and SO aggressively give your opinion... "IMO" people think less and less of it everyday...I can't believe this thread has lasted this long...

 

[SHELLY]

With sincerity and respects Shelly, you SO frequently and SO aggressively give your opinion... "IMO" people think less and less of it everyday...I can't believe this thread has lasted this long...

And all the people are certainly entitled to their opinions too...I don't have a problem with that.

 

[beachmouse]

As far as I'm concerned, a discussion board that lacks diverse opinions gets pretty boring pretty quickly.

In fringe area news, (geography, not opinions) the Bay Beason reports that Ruckel family has apparently approached the city of Niceville about annexing 1,000 acres north of the N'ville airport and east of OWC. Their plans are to finish building out Swift Creek, and then develop the new land as a mix of middle class to upscale housing and commercial, and possibly put a golf course somewhere in the area.

 

[DBOldford]

Exclusive Resorts is being sued by our town for operating a home as a timeshare property. They were foolish enough to place a big article in the NY Times Travel section, with photos. The home was instantly recognized as the party house next to our public park. The owners have not paid a 12.5% bed tax required of any rental property since it was built, but the town also has an ordinance prohibiting timeshare properties. The owners are apparently a very nice couple of guys from San Francisco, who had no idea and heard the Exclusive Resorts siren song without looking into the constraints of local ordinances. Their exposure and liability is now huge.

I absolutely agree with the point that every owner has their own exit strategy and needs and that isn't necessarily compatible with the more recent buyers/investors or especially with the speculative investors in lots and pre-construction condos. Add to that the fact that rental properties in highly desirable areas have no strong incentive to sell just before the rental season begins = revenue flow. What the area needs is a summer without catastrophic hurricane damage and news coverage, combined with lots of press about the advantages the new airport will bring and a stable situation relative to interest rates. (Although I am advised that most of the sales in our area and for our type of product are cash sales, probably 1031 exchanges.)

I also think that South Walton has somewhat missed the boat in not advertising the fact that very little damage was done to properties in our immediate area as a result of the storms. Pensacola and the Ft. Walton/Destin areas were hard hit, but the extent of our major damage seemed beach erosion and its attenuate grasp (dune walkovers). Living so far away from South Walton, I am amazed at how many well-informed people think that Hurricane Katrina itself did the major damage to New Orleans, instead of the condition of their levees in combination with a dismal performance on the evacuation. South Walton has been very effective with its evacuation plans, with rare exception, and I see them continuing to do road plans to improve this for the future. Not that long ago, there was no mandatory evacuation required for a storm of any intensity. (Or maybe I'm older than I think... :roll:

 

[Paula]

I agree, Donna, about the lack of advertising outside SoWal. The area is nicely advertised (even has articles written about it) in Southern Living and Coastal Living. But I don't see anything about it advertised to people in the midwest, even though we'd be a prime target for rentals and buyers. People from Michigan, for example, are so grateful for 60 degree weather in the winter -- even 50 degree weather -- sometimes 40 degree weather... I think we could get a lot of winter rentals from retirees from the midwest if we advertised more. Another off-season market would be academics on sabbatical who have grown children. SoWal would be a beautiful place to write one's articles or books while on sabbatical.

 

[josebby]

We live in the Chicago area. I was surprised a few weeks ago to get a St. Joe insert in the Chicago Tribune! They are starting to try to raise interest in the Midwest. I would say only one in ten people here tell me they know about SoWal and almost always they reference Destin. We are trying for word of mouth renters for our place in WaterSound from networking here in the 'burbs...and it's working! A retired couple have rented for two weeks in February.
Great idea about professors. I'll get the word out to my friends at our local college and see if it works.

 

[monty]

I am confused.

The math is very simple sixth grade algebra.

An example of one of the lot comparisons above is as follows:

X represents the market peak price paid for a lot in a specific area and 60% of X is the same as .6 times X.

In the case of lot 18 in the Windrose Section of Watersound which sold for $969k, X would be $969k in the algebraic equation. Although several nearby lots sold for similarly high prices, this particular lot sale represents the absolute market peak in this small area of Watersound. 60% of X equals about $582k. Lot 17 right next door is now listed for $475k. Lot 17 is listed, and not selling, at a price that is actually lower than 60% of the market high. In fact, it is listed for less than 50% of the market high.

If you want to find a good deal in the market, enlist the help of an agent who can do the digging for you. Then keep your eyes peeled, find a place you like and make an aggressive offer.

 

[SHELLY]

We live in the Chicago area. I was surprised a few weeks ago to get a St. Joe insert in the Chicago Tribune! They are starting to try to raise interest in the Midwest. I would say only one in ten people here tell me they know about SoWal and almost always they reference Destin.

The reason St Joe didn't advertise in the past was they didn't need to advertise. There were no end to the number of investors in the immediate area. All JOE had to do was fire out a fax to a couple Realtors about their property-du-jour and thousands would come flocking--LOC in hand--to glom around the jumbo shrimp bowl and sign contracts.

JOE had a near-zero advertising budget in those heady days of the real estate boom. Things have changed--expect to see more advertisements farther afield.