Real Estate Supply

[Cil]

This is probably an ignorant question, but what is the situation with gambling in the state of Florida? (I am not big on gambling/casinos so have not made it my business to find out.)

BTW
Did y'all know Gulf County is completely dry on Sundays? I mean, you can't even buy a drink in a restaurant. Our neck of the woods should be called "American Never-On-Sunday Riviera."

This past week I have seen three different cars with Michigan plates. They are making their way down here and I am glad our weather is nice for them.

 

[Smiling JOe]

This is probably an ignorant question, but what is the situation with gambling in the state of Florida? (I am not big on gambling/casinos so have not made it my business to find out.)

BTW
Did y'all know Gulf County is completely dry on Sundays? I mean, you can't even buy a drink in a restaurant. Our neck of the woods should be called "American Never-On-Sunday Riviera."

This past week I have seen three different cars with Michigan plates. They are making their way down here and I am glad our weather is nice for them.

Girl, there is not a County or Parish in the United States that is completely dry, even on Sundays. You just have to learn who to ask to get a drink. ;-)

The only gambling I do is getting in my car or on my bike and riding down the road, and, living in Hurricane Alley, so I too, don't keep up with the gambling ins and outs. Gambling is available in Ebro, located 15 miles north of PCB. At the Dog Track, you can bet on the dog races, or in the Texas Holdem' tournaments, and probably some more things too, although I don't know if all of them are legal. I think the northern Miami area was approved for gambling last year. In the past (not sure about the present), gambling was allowed in certain venues in Daytona. There maybe other areas in FL, too, where gambling is legal. Kurt is probably right, with the tax revenue generated from gambling, we will probably see big casinos push to get in the PC/PCB area.

 

[monty]

I'm familiar with a lot of the homes you talked about in Rosemary and you can't compare them only by price per square footage. There is a lot more to it than that. The house on Spanish Town is magnficent and is 1 lot back from the gulf, the one on Rosemary Avenue is a carriage house and is north of 30A. Your stats also don't take in to account build-out times, need of owner to sale, etc. Your comparisons are too simplistic.

FYI--Get a realtor and do some more research. The house that sold at 177 Rosemary is not a carriage house and it is not North of 30A. It is about 3 houses back from the ocean and has almost 3000 square feet.

In terms of comparisons, you are right and you are wrong. While it is easy to compare lots that sit side by side or very near each other as I did in my post, it is difficult to compare houses based on price per square square foot. However, what measure is appropriate???? I contend that in some cases it is a very easy way to guage the market. When lot size is fairly comparable (the value of the underlying land is pretty close), the size of the house on the lot is relatively comparable, the lot location is relatively comparable, the construction quality is similar, it is a reasonable comparison. In the case of the house that sold on Spanish Town, and the one that sold on Rosemary and the one for sale on Rosemary Avenue, the lots are similar in size, the homes are all magnificent, both have carriage houses, both have a view of the ocean, etc, etc. It is quite reasonable to compare the cost per square foot. If the market was stable, you would expect the price per square foot of these three homes to be close. However, the price on the home for sale is 30% to 40% less per square foot than the home that sold. There is no reason that the price should be that much lower other than the fact that the market has fallen..Plus the house is not selling so the market must be even lower than the current listing price.

 

[monty]

I am still waiting to see the listings offered at 60% the last sale price -- apples for apples. CCK is dead on as for the sq ftg. That alone tells me nothing more than half of the picture.

Go take a look at the houses in Rosemary that I described. You will find a pretty good comparison. No way you can explain such a drastic difference in cost per square foot other than the market.

the lot comparisons on the other hand cannot be argued, they are 100% apples to apples. You can get the data from a qualified realtor in the market and then go make some offers if you are so inclined. I prefer to wait for the bottom of the market.

In my post I actually said lots were listed at 60% of X (previous market high prices) not 60% below X. Several of my examples of lots show that neighboring lots are listing for 60% of previous highs in the market. In fact, one lot is over 50% below what an almost exact replica sold for at the market peak.

 

[Smiling JOe]

...

In my post I actually said lots were listed at 60% of X (previous market high prices) not 60% below X. Several of my examples of lots show that neighboring lots are listing for 60% of previous highs in the market. In fact, one lot is over 50% below what an almost exact replica sold for at the market peak.

I am confused.

 

[Santiago]

Go take a look at the houses in Rosemary that I described. You will find a pretty good comparison. No way you can explain such a drastic difference in cost per square foot other than the market.

the lot comparisons on the other hand cannot be argued, they are 100% apples to apples. You can get the data from a qualified realtor in the market and then go make some offers if you are so inclined. I prefer to wait for the bottom of the market.

In my post I actually said lots were listed at 60% of X (previous market high prices) not 60% below X. Several of my examples of lots show that neighboring lots are listing for 60% of previous highs in the market. In fact, one lot is over 50% below what an almost exact replica sold for at the market peak.

The drastic difference in price per foot is due to the entry cost of the sellers when they purchased and the need to sell. I've done a ton of buying and selling in SoWal as have most of my friends. It's simple, if you have lots of product and need to move something for cash flow, it doesn't make a damn what the neighbor has his listed for. You price it to sell and move on. I'm sitting on several lots and houses now that were purchased 2.5 to 3 years ago before the drastic run up in prices. They will be priced to suit my needs, not the needs of the guy who bought last year. This is going on right now. There are many properties listed for sale by people who really do not care if they sell or not. These are usually priced high. On the other end of the spectrum, you have would be flippers who do not want to build and builders who want to free up their construction lines, hence the low prices.

 

[Kurt]

Santiago I appreciate you posting that because it shows why our market is weird. Basic principles apply, but it is not normal here. It seems that a few posters try to compare SoWal to what is happening in their own sphere, or what they read about as "normal" or expected.

The truth is that every property, and every buyer and seller here has their own story. And many of those stories are unusual.

 

[RB]

the home that is mentioned at 49 Rosemary ave is owned by Exclusive Resorts. Exclusive Resorts is a private club with homes all over the world. They purchased 2 homes in Rosemary Beach early in 2004. They are both for sale now. This is most likely a business decision to better utilize their assets. The one on rosemary ave was purchased in feb 02 for 2.25 million. It is now listed for 3.1 mil. this is not a bad return on your money for 24 months time. even though the cost sq/ft may not be equal to others it is still a good sale for them if it moves quick. The other home mentioned in the post at 67 dunmoretown lane is not 3400 sq/ft. I know who built it and the house is not even close to that size even if you consider the carriage house. look it up in the county records. The main house is closer to 2500. So this house is not listed at a discount. The two homes that Exclusive Resorts are selling will probably be some of the first to move in Rosemary. They reflect a price that is more realistic than the other homes being offered. There are approx 80 homes for sale in Rosemary right now. At this time last year there was less than half this number. The home at 177 Rosemary that sold last year for around 3.6 mil is centered on the eastern green with nothing between it and the gulf except a beautiful community green. So this is not a fair comp to the homes above.

 

[Santiago]

Santiago I appreciate you posting that because it shows why our market is weird. Basic principles apply, but it is not normal here. It seems that a few posters try to compare SoWal to what is happening in their own sphere, or what they read about as "normal" or expected.

The truth is that every property, and every buyer and seller here has their own story. And many of those stories are unusual.

There is much truth in these last 2 sentences. RB has touched on this above. There are so many variables that affect pricing even within neighborhoods, not to mention spread out over all of 30A. Having said this, I personally think that Monty is right about the bottom not being hear yet. If you don't care which lot you get within a neighborhood like Watercolor, you will be able to do a little better than now. The unique, premium lots will probably not go down any further. I have a lot in Watercolor that was purchased in August 05, just before the drop in prices, that I can make about a 30% return on in 6 months if I would just say yes, but I'm not selling. Its a unique lot. I also have one purchased at about the same time that I would love to get my money back on but can't right now. Point being, every situation is different.

 

[Rita]

.....Prices on many lots and homes are well below the peak of late 2004 and early 2005. Asking prices for lots that sold for X a year or so ago are sitting right next door to lots on the market today that are listed for 60% of X (and they aren't selling at these drastically reduced prices). Houses that sold for $X per square foot 12 to 18 months ago are sitting next to similar houses that are listed today at prices 10 to 25% less per square foot (and these aren't selling either).

Too much x = %y + $ for me.

Thanks Santiago and all for sharing your first hand knowledge with us of some of these properties being compared. It helps.

Get ready for the delete button Kurt.......