Real Estate Supply

[Chickpea]

That's very interesting about the government-owned land. I stand corrected then. Thanks for the info.

I do agree that it is the beginning of the end (for now) of condo development. Too much too fast ... in Tampa we've had a huge number of condos built lately, plus a lot of apartment conversions to condos :roll:, and it looks like several of the latest announced communities are just not gonna happen. We're relatively secure here with single family homes, but there are signs of a slowdown. Houses are moving, supply seems to be in balance in most areas, but the price has to be appropriate.

Then again, the US population just hit 300 million, or is about to (can't remember which it is) so the building booms are far from over.

There are 1200 new residents who move to Florida EVERY Day. 90% of them will chose to live within 10 miles of the Ocean (both coasts). Most of them obviously do not have millions to spend but there continues to be great interest in the coast and our region and Sowal has incalculable advantage of having so much land seemingly slated for preservation and I cannot imagine that changing without considerable uproar from residents.

 

[monty]

Could you give 3 or 4 addresses where this is happening now? I am in the market for a lot within walking distance of the beach. Feel free to pm me on this.

Here are a few examples from one end of 30A to the other. Get a good realtor who will give you sales data as well as listing data and you can find a whole lot more where these came from. And, remember, these are asking prices. Some of these sellers will be getting desparate to unload (especially lots with buildout times approaching) so make a "ridiculous" offer and you are likely to get it accepted.

1> Cypress Dunes--
Lot 26 listed at $899k with georgeous ocean views. Three lots with exact same views on same street but a little smaller than #26 (#'s 44, 42, and 39) sold for $1.1 million each. Price is just under 20% less than market high water mark.

Lot 110 listed at $350k backs up to cypress pond and lot 102 does the same listed at $349k. Several lots on same street sold for from $450k to $495k. Prices on these two lots are roughly 20% to 35% under market high.

2> Preserve at Grayton--

Lots 76 and 78 are priced under $360k. Lot 77 sold for $420k and lot 75 sold for $525k. Prices are down up to 30%.


3> Watercolor--

House on lot 14 Cottage District with some view of ocean recently sold for $1.69 million (seller took an offer $260k under listing price). A smaller house with no view of the ocean three doors down sold for $1.75 million over a year ago.

Lot 10 in Cypress Cove at $435k price is 25% lower than prices paid for nearby lots. Lot 4 Pine Crest at $550k is 30% lower than lot 7 sold at $773k. Lot 24 Sand Hill at $960K down 20% from lot 5 sold at $1.2 million.

4> Watersound--

Lot 9 Passages listed for $699k after lot 5 sold for $869k price down over 20%. Lot 65 Passages at $485k down 45% from sale of lot 63 at $899k. Lot 17 Wind Rose at $475k versus sale of lot 18 for $969k down over 50%.

5>Rosemary--

49 Rosemary Avenue for sale at about 750 per square foot and 67 Dunmore for sale at about $800 per square foot. Numerous sales in 2004 and early 2005 (including 177 Rosemary, 12 Spanish Town, 46 Cartegna, etc, etc) sold for $1100 to $1250 per square foot and many current listings are well over $1000 per square foot.


This list is only a fraction of listings that are at amounts below market highs and none of these are selling. But, if you feel the market is only in a temporary lull rather than in a decreasing mode, these are outstanding buys. If however, you are like me, keep your powder dry because IMO the deals will only get better over the next year or two, especially on lots in neighborhoods with buildout deadlines that are rapidly approaching.

 

[Camp Creek Kid]

Here are a few examples from one end of 30A to the other. Get a good realtor who will give you sales data as well as listing data and you can find a whole lot more where these came from. And, remember, these are asking prices. Some of these sellers will be getting desparate to unload (especially lots with buildout times approaching) so make a "ridiculous" offer and you are likely to get it accepted.

1> Cypress Dunes--
Lot 26 listed at $899k with georgeous ocean views. Three lots with exact same views on same street but a little smaller than #26 (#'s 44, 42, and 39) sold for $1.1 million each. Price is just under 20% less than market high water mark.

Lot 110 listed at $350k backs up to cypress pond and lot 102 does the same listed at $349k. Several lots on same street sold for from $450k to $495k. Prices on these two lots are roughly 20% to 35% under market high.

2> Preserve at Grayton--

Lots 76 and 78 are priced under $360k. Lot 77 sold for $420k and lot 75 sold for $525k. Prices are down up to 30%.


3> Watercolor--

House on lot 14 Cottage District with some view of ocean recently sold for $1.69 million (seller took an offer $260k under listing price). A smaller house with no view of the ocean three doors down sold for $1.75 million over a year ago.

Lot 10 in Cypress Cove at $435k price is 25% lower than prices paid for nearby lots. Lot 4 Pine Crest at $550k is 30% lower than lot 7 sold at $773k. Lot 24 Sand Hill at $960K down 20% from lot 5 sold at $1.2 million.

4> Watersound--

Lot 9 Passages listed for $699k after lot 5 sold for $869k price down over 20%. Lot 65 Passages at $485k down 45% from sale of lot 63 at $899k. Lot 17 Wind Rose at $475k versus sale of lot 18 for $969k down over 50%.

5>Rosemary--

49 Rosemary Avenue for sale at about 750 per square foot and 67 Dunmore for sale at about $800 per square foot. Numerous sales in 2004 and early 2005 (including 177 Rosemary, 12 Spanish Town, 46 Cartegna, etc, etc) sold for $1100 to $1250 per square foot and many current listings are well over $1000 per square foot.


This list is only a fraction of listings that are at amounts below market highs and none of these are selling. But, if you feel the market is only in a temporary lull rather than in a decreasing mode, these are outstanding buys. If however, you are like me, keep your powder dry because IMO the deals will only get better over the next year or two, especially on lots in neighborhoods with buildout deadlines that are rapidly approaching.

I'm familiar with a lot of the homes you talked about in Rosemary and you can't compare them only by price per square footage. There is a lot more to it than that. The house on Spanish Town is magnficent and is 1 lot back from the gulf, the one on Rosemary Avenue is a carriage house and is north of 30A. Your stats also don't take in to account build-out times, need of owner to sale, etc. Your comparisons are too simplistic.

 

[Smiling JOe]

I am still waiting to see the listings offered at 60% the last sale price -- apples for apples. CCK is dead on as for the sq ftg. That alone tells me nothing more than half of the picture.

 

[Buckhead Rick]

We were down last week and had a long talk with our realtor at Watercolor. It seems the new (proposed) airport at PC will have a MUCH bigger effect on real estate values than I would ever had thought. This may come as a surprise but the airport isn't being build to give southerners better deals from Atlanta but to open the mid-west i.e. Chicago et al to the panhandle. As he said these folks now go to Napels (sp) and the south west coast of Fla because it can handle the larger planes but when you compare panhandle real estate prices to that part of Fla we are all most cheap. I guess JOE had a reason to "donate" 4000 ACs to the county. Here come the cheeze heads!(with check books)

 

[GreenWaveDave]

We were down last week and had a long talk with our realtor at Watercolor. It seems the new (proposed) airport at PC will have a MUCH bigger effect on real estate values than I would ever had thought. This may come as a surprise but the airport isn't being build to give southerners better deals from Atlanta but to open the mid-west i.e. Chicago et al to the panhandle. As he said these folks now go to Napels (sp) and the south west coast of Fla because it can handle the larger planes but when you compare panhandle real estate prices to that part of Fla we are all most cheap. I guess JOE had a reason to "donate" 4000 ACs to the county. Here come the cheeze heads!(with check books)

Any update on the progress/ projected completion date of the new Airport?

 

[Smiling JOe]

We were down last week and had a long talk with our realtor at Watercolor. It seems the new (proposed) airport at PC will have a MUCH bigger effect on real estate values than I would ever had thought. This may come as a surprise but the airport isn't being build to give southerners better deals from Atlanta but to open the mid-west i.e. Chicago et al to the panhandle. As he said these folks now go to Napels (sp) and the south west coast of Fla because it can handle the larger planes but when you compare panhandle real estate prices to that part of Fla we are all most cheap. I guess JOE had a reason to "donate" 4000 ACs to the county. Here come the cheeze heads!(with check books)

That has been the thought all along. Not only the midwest, but the northeast, and the west coast as well as more international flyers are expected to come. Already, people from as far away as TX and OH have no problems driving here, and those people will most likely continue to drive to the area. With the new airport, they are looking for a different source of money -- places where money is cheaper (if you no what I mean). That is why I keep saying that ten years from now, you will wish you had bought back when the real estate was "overpriced."

 

[Smiling JOe]

Any update on the progress/ projected completion date of the new Airport?

It has been delayed slightly. The final yes or no was supposed to take place in Nov '05. Currently, the (I think) Airport Authority is still studying the impact issues associated with development of the existing airport and they are expected to give the final yes or no vote in the summer of this year. Plenty of money has already been placed in the coffers to begin costruction when the word is given. Expected date of operation of the new airport is 2009.

 

[TooFarTampa]

It has been delayed slightly. The final yes or no was supposed to take place in Nov '05. Currently, the (I think) Airport Authority is still studying the impact issues associated with development of the existing airport and they are expected to give the final yes or no vote in the summer of this year. Plenty of money has already been placed in the coffers to begin costruction when the word is given. Expected date of operation of the new airport is 2009.

Thanks for this. I was nosing around on the Dept of Environmental Protection site and saw that the wetlands permit for the airport was still being reviewed. Since some of the permit applications date back a couple of years, I guess this could take awhile. Wonder what this issues are exactly.

 

[Smiling JOe]

Thanks for this. I was nosing around on the Dept of Environmental Protection site and saw that the wetlands permit for the airport was still being reviewed. Since some of the permit applications date back a couple of years, I guess this could take awhile. Wonder what this issues are exactly.

To my knowledge, and I have been known to be incorrect, the only thing holding up the project now is the impact study of the existing airport.

I believe there is a link posted somewhere regarding the updates on the airport. Run a search and see what you find.

Edit: here is the link to the pcairport.bechtel.com/
Once on that page, click on "project schedule." I don't think they updated it recently.