Real Estate Supply

[BMBWalker]

We are in the slowest period for real estate sales and all the real estate agents I know (who are still working) are getting busy. Serious investors are in the market now, trying to take advantage of people who over leveraged themselves. Prices will level off 1st quarter of 2007 and will begin to increase during 2nd and 3rd quarter of 07. By 4th quarter 2007 the insurance and tax issues will have been resolved, so if we can have another mild hurricane season, completion of SW beach renurishment, and further airport development, then I anticipate a very strong 2008 year. Still the people who can not run with the big dogs will stay on the porch and growl at everyone else for having the courage to take a little risk.

FFF...I know a lot of "big dogs" under the front porch whining right now!

Thanks for the projection. You might be right about 2008!

 

[supermom262]

I had to change my avatar to this biggest dog I can find. Her name is Florida, by the way. I have been a Realtor in Michigan for 14 years, invested here, moved here, have told everyone I know in Michigan about SoWal, and have gone back to work here. I have been in the business long enough to have experienced 13% interest rates, the Gulf War, buyers and sellers markets and lots of inventory. Not as much inventory as what we have right now, I'll admit. All Northeners are not bad either! They will actually bring fresh blood (probably not the best choice of words) to the market. I agree with FFF. If we are all doom and gloom, what hope do we have? I'm having an open house Saturday. I know there is nothing else like what we have here and I am STILL excited to call a little piece of it MINE! Here is to an AWESOME 2007!

 

[SHELLY]

Shelly, dead link.

Try this:

MILLION DOLLAR CONDOS WITH SOUP KITCHENS BELOW

 

[fisher]

Prime example of what the "big dogs" are doing. There is a very successful developer/investor in Seagrove with initials of DH. Controversial at times but successful, and has been investing at the beach a very long time. What has he done during this time, but buy every piece of beach front property he can get his hands on. He demolished about 5 rental homes right on the beach! Do you think he believes there is a 5-8 years for the market to return? Probably not! Now he is not buying property blocks from the beach either, but RE that is beach front! I know of another developer who is using his own money (not the banks) to build more condo's near Topsol state park. Look what the big players are doing, and then ask yourself again if you really believe its going to be 5-8 years. There have always been a mix of end users and investors at the beach. Unfortunately, way to may people have discovered paradise, and this little slump will not last for long. I have never known anyone who has been to our beach along 30-A and not said they wished they had a beach home or condo there.

Just because one investor has bought up lots of property on either side of 30A and then put signs up saying Harris Family and Friends in front of each one of them does not mean the market is turning. Nor does it mean that Harris Family and Friends will actually be successful investing in all of those properties. Past success does not guarantee future success anymore than past failures insure no future successes. Again, we need end users, not investors, buying property. If HFF bought 6 or 8 properties, they will need to find 6 to 8 multimillionaires to buy the properties from among and whole host of similar properties up and down 30A. The inventory is the problem. Investors will not solve the problem. Only end users will correct the situation and there just aren't nearly enough of them interested in the market to solve the inventory problem anytime in the foreseeable future. The laws of supply and demand are in control here---too much supply, very little demand.

 

[SHELLY]

We are in the slowest period for real estate sales and all the real estate agents I know (who are still working) are getting busy. Serious investors are in the market now, trying to take advantage of people who over leveraged themselves. Prices will level off 1st quarter of 2007 and will begin to increase during 2nd and 3rd quarter of 07. By 4th quarter 2007 the insurance and tax issues will have been resolved, so if we can have another mild hurricane season, completion of SW beach renurishment, and further airport development, then I anticipate a very strong 2008 year. Still the people who can not run with the big dogs will stay on the porch and growl at everyone else for having the courage to take a little risk.

Am interested in hearing your scenario for how RE is going to start to turn around by April 2007.

How are the insurance and tax issues going to be resolved? What do you see happening in the next 3 months? Is insurance going to get cheaper? Is the congress going to call a special session and order State Farm to lower their prices, or else? Is Florida going to scrap the SOH program and lower taxes for all homeowners--making up for the shortfall by reusing paperclips and ordering documents to be printed on the "draft" setting to cut down on ink cartridge use?

What do you see happening to the folks who "invested" in RE in 2005/2006 (and are now trying to sell). Are they going to make a profit (after all carrying costs and expenses are figured in?)

Who are these people who will be buying up all the condos, houses and lots that are now for sale (and those that are waiting in the wings to flood the market come the "Big Spring Selling Season?") Won't many of the boomers find they'll have trouble selling their properties up North (or drawing out equity to finance)? Or is all RE (not just beach properties) going to pull out of the slump together.

If the economy is as strong as the government would like us to believe, wouldn't lowering interest rates be the very last thing the Fed would want to do? (It would spark hyper-inflation and send the dollar straight to hell.)

FFF, walk me through the steps of this quick RE recovery. Real estate does go through booms and busts; I find it hard to believe that the record-shattering RE boom we've just experienced over the past few years (helped along by cheap money and mass speculation) is going to exit this "soft landing" in a couple of months and start heading up again where it left off.

 

[Bobby J]

Here is my latest prediction. I vow to keep my optimistic a#@ from this Real Estate section. You can find me on the corner of 30A and 83. This is where I will be writing contracts and having a great 2007. I am sorry many of you find that hard to believe but properties are selling. If you would like to look at the "daily" hotsheets you are welcome to come by my office. Heck, I will even leave them at the door for you. 2006 was a weird year. Not a banner year but not as bad as many on the boards talk about. Much of the quoted info comes from sources that have nothing to do with SOWAL. I resign...

 

[Mango]

Am interested in hearing your scenario for how RE is going to start to turn around by April 2007.

How are the insurance and tax issues going to be resolved? What do you see happening in the next 3 months? Is insurance going to get cheaper? Is the congress going to call a special session and order State Farm to lower their prices, or else? Is Florida going to scrap the SOH program and lower taxes for all homeowners--making up for the shortfall by reusing paperclips and ordering documents to be printed on the "draft" setting to cut down on ink cartridge use?

What do you see happening to the folks who "invested" in RE in 2005/2006 (and are now trying to sell). Are they going to make a profit (after all carrying costs and expenses are figured in?)

Who are these people who will be buying up all the condos, houses and lots that are now for sale (and those that are waiting in the wings to flood the market come the "Big Spring Selling Season?") Won't many of the boomers find they'll have trouble selling their properties up North (or drawing out equity to finance)? Or is all RE (not just beach properties) going to pull out of the slump together.

If the economy is as strong as the government would like us to believe, wouldn't lowering interest rates be the very last thing the Fed would want to do? (It would spark hyper-inflation and send the dollar straight to hell.)

FFF, walk me through the steps of this quick RE recovery. Real estate does go through booms and busts; I find it hard to believe that the record-shattering RE boom we've just experienced over the past few years (helped along by cheap money and mass speculation) is going to exit this "soft landing" in a couple of months and start heading up again where it left off.

Shelly, I do not profess to understand economics as well as you at all, but I am curious how you think that a drop in the Fed rate would cause hyper-inflation and send the dollar straight to he!!?
I was always under the understanding that the drop in the value of the dollar had more to do with with a drop in foreign investment in part because of the tax implications and the difficulty for foreigners due to the Patriot Act and one other Bush induced Act.

As far as properties in the North, I can say in the Northeast, although they are taking a little longer to sell, they are still selling, and the prices have not dropped nearly as sharply as Floriduh. Homes anywhere near the water in 1MM plus range are still selling well in New Jersey to end users. Coops and condos in NYC are selling with no huge price drops.

.........and as far as some comments made about "Northerners" (not you Shelly) perhaps you would see more of us buying homes as end users if you toss aside the prejudice. I know that I adore all my SoWal friends no matter where they came from.

 

[flyforfun]

Am interested in hearing your scenario for how RE is going to start to turn around by April 2007.

How are the insurance and tax issues going to be resolved? What do you see happening in the next 3 months? Is insurance going to get cheaper? Is the congress going to call a special session and order State Farm to lower their prices, or else? Is Florida going to scrap the SOH program and lower taxes for all homeowners--making up for the shortfall by reusing paperclips and ordering documents to be printed on the "draft" setting to cut down on ink cartridge use?

What do you see happening to the folks who "invested" in RE in 2005/2006 (and are now trying to sell). Are they going to make a profit (after all carrying costs and expenses are figured in?)

Who are these people who will be buying up all the condos, houses and lots that are now for sale (and those that are waiting in the wings to flood the market come the "Big Spring Selling Season?") Won't many of the boomers find they'll have trouble selling their properties up North (or drawing out equity to finance)? Or is all RE (not just beach properties) going to pull out of the slump together.

If the economy is as strong as the government would like us to believe, wouldn't lowering interest rates be the very last thing the Fed would want to do? (It would spark hyper-inflation and send the dollar straight to hell.)

FFF, walk me through the steps of this quick RE recovery. Real estate does go through booms and busts; I find it hard to believe that the record-shattering RE boom we've just experienced over the past few years (helped along by cheap money and mass speculation) is going to exit this "soft landing" in a couple of months and start heading up again where it left off.

Shelly, talk to anyone who has lived at the beach through a couple of huricane season's, and they will all tell you story's whereby the insurance industry raises rates. In time they drop or level off. Same goes with taxes. I am confident the Florida legistature is going to address the above mention problems head-on because they have too! The entire Florida economy depends on it! The worst nation wide real estate decline I have ever experienced in my life time occured after some major tax reshuffling back in the early 1990's. High leverage investor's took a beating much worse than what we are experiencing now, and many lost everything. Still within 18-24 months things turned rebound. Many agents in this area are doing good, and that is because they work and market their properties instead of sitting around waiting for a phone call. All the easy gimmic money deals you mentioned, only helped unexperienced flippers. Some of these people will disappear forever and others will become smarter RE investors. BTW, I have never meet a "end user" who did not consider their beach property as an investment.

 

[beachmouse]

I can't see SOH changing much in terms of tax relief for non-homestead properties. There are just way too many voters (including myself) who like the present system just fine.

And if youu look at the set up of the Florida tax codes, it's almost always been that the tourists, second home owners and newcomers that take the hit with the implication that the longer you're a resident in the state, the better the tax set up becomes for you. SOH is consistent with that attitude.

 

[InletBchDweller]

:clap_1: :clap_1: :clap_1: I vote for a good year also......(with a little help from up above) ;-)

Here is my latest prediction. I vow to keep my optimistic a#@ from this Real Estate section. You can find me on the corner of 30A and 83. This is where I will be writing contracts and having a great 2007. I am sorry many of you find that hard to believe but properties are selling. If you would like to look at the "daily" hotsheets you are welcome to come by my office. Heck, I will even leave them at the door for you. 2006 was a weird year. Not a banner year but not as bad as many on the boards talk about. Much of the quoted info comes from sources that have nothing to do with SOWAL. I resign...