Real Estate Supply

[destinsm]

Can someone explain this huge descrepancy to a non RE math guy...

In the NWF Daily news today... ECAR said how residential sales in '06 were down about 20 percent from '05, but sugar coated it with the positive news that Novemeber 06 sales were up 33 percent from November 05 sales in the Okaloosa, Walton, Santa Rosa, and Bay counties... as to hint we are starting to reach bottom and here comes the rebound....

Well if you look at the data from FAR and look at the MSA's that make up these counties... ie Pensacola, FWB, and Panama City... You get the following data for residential sales from Nov 05 to Nov 06...


SFH Condo
FWB -37% -8%
Panama City -15% -7%
Pensacola -27% 21%


Doesnt seem to add up to the 33% increase that ECAR is using in the paper...

 

[Smiling JOe]

Can someone explain this huge descrepancy to a non RE math guy...

In the NWF Daily news today... ECAR said how residential sales in '06 were down about 20 percent from '05, but sugar coated it with the positive news that Novemeber 06 sales were up 33 percent from November 05 sales in the Okaloosa, Walton, Santa Rosa, and Bay counties... as to hint we are starting to reach bottom and here comes the rebound....

Well if you look at the data from FAR and look at the MSA's that make up these counties... ie Pensacola, FWB, and Panama City... You get the following data for residential sales from Nov 05 to Nov 06...


SFH Condo
FWB -37% -8%
Panama City -15% -7%
Pensacola -27% 21%


Doesnt seem to add up to the 33% increase that ECAR is using in the paper...

ECAR doesn't include Panama City or Pensacola data. It Includes Walton and Okaloosa Counties. Although ECAR users have access to data in other areas in NW FL, that is not used in our data for the ECAR region. As I have stated many times before, we are a fairly unique market, and not always typical of the Florida or National Avg. Although the drive from 30A to PCB is fairly short, it is a different market, with different end users as buyers. Ask most people who own property east of Camp Creek Rd (which includes a Panama City Beach mailing address, unless you live in a s/d with a gourmet Post Office, like Rosemary Beach), and you will find that they hate having a PCB mailing address.

EDIT:

I don't usually run Destin data, but I will in the following data for comparing nov 06 to nov 05. The data will include all MLS sales data for the area from and including Destin through all of SoWal. This is not the same data which ECAR would use for their entire area, but I think this is the most active area of our market.

sfd (single family detached homes) - sales, both quantity and total dollar volume were down in nov 06 compared to nov 05.
total $ volume for nov 06 = -66.03%
quantity of sales for nov 06 = -86.11%

condos -- sales for nov 06 were substatially up over 05, both in quantity and tot dollar volume.
total $ volume for nov 06 = +32.19%
quantity of sales for nov 06 = +43.14%

Attached Single Family (townhomes) -- sales were up tremendously in nov 06 vs nov 05.
total $ volume for nov 06 = +87.36%
quantity of sales for nov 06 = +77.78%

 

[flyforfun]

I can't see SOH changing much in terms of tax relief for non-homestead properties. There are just way too many voters (including myself) who like the present system just fine.

And if youu look at the set up of the Florida tax codes, it's almost always been that the tourists, second home owners and newcomers that take the hit with the implication that the longer you're a resident in the state, the better the tax set up becomes for you. SOH is consistent with that attitude.

Watch for changes in taxation that will provide relief for second home owners via the Florida Legislature.

 

[destinsm]

ECAR doesn't include Panama City or Pensacola data. It Includes Walton and Okaloosa Counties. Although ECAR users have access to data in other areas in NW FL, that is not used in our data for the ECAR region. As I have stated many times before, we are a fairly unique market, and not always typical of the Florida or National Avg. Although the drive from 30A to PCB is fairly short, it is a different market, with different end users as buyers. Ask most people who own property east of Camp Creek Rd (which includes a Panama City Beach mailing address, unless you live in a s/d with a gourmet Post Office, like Rosemary Beach), and you will find that they hate having a PCB mailing address.

I will quote the 2 paragraphs directly from the newspaper...
-----
"In 2006, residential sales in Santa Roas, Okaloosa, Walton, and Bay Counties - including condos and townhomes - were down by about 20 percent from 2005, according to recent Association of Realtors statistics.

However, those same numbers show that residential sales in the four-county area in November were up 33 percent from November 2005.

"It looks like things are coming back to a stronger pace," Stafford siad."
----

Okay I added a third paragraph to make my point... They show data that does not even come close to what the MSA data shows on FAR's website to try and drum up some demand...

Again my question will be asked... HOW are sales of every MSA in the counties mentioned down considerably from Nov 05 to Nov 06, but yet in the paper they say they are up 33%...

 

[Smiling JOe]

destinsm, read my edit in post 222. I pulled some stats which may help you better understand their numbers. Remember, they are just stats.

 

[destinsm]

destinsm, read my edit in post 222. I pulled some stats which may help you better understand their numbers. Remember, they are just stats.

Thanks for the data Smiling Joe, very appreciated...

Looks like some people are bitting on the price declings in the condo and townhome markets...

Following a few of them I would expect so... for example a new townhome development in Destin (Quail Lake) had units for sale all above $300,000 in '05... end of this year there are a number for sale in the $180,000 range...

Another, Diamond Lakes, was asking over $400,000 in '05... now selling for about $295,000....

Problem is even with people bitting on these supposed deals on the way down, there is still TONS more supply out there to be soaked up... So really they are just resetting the market downward to go even further down in the near future, imo... but somebody has to do it

 

[goofer]

HEY BOBBY J


I have a New Years Resolution in the same spirit as you. I will not get into debates with people on this message board as I did with my stock market forecasts regarding housing stocks in early August. I would rather just do my thing rather than pontificate. I will use the board to ask questions and learn but not to argue with anyone. I love the message board but it is very difficult to have a give and take with an anonymous person. I think it is more beneficial to have weekly or monthly get togethers with interested people to discuss ideas concerning real estate, stocks or other investment options. It is much more educational to sit with a person one on one rather than type comments back and forth. The board can continue to be used in its current manner but the personal meetings can be used to explore a topic more in depth for those interested. Discussions in small groups is really how we learn. You can't fully evaluate and discuss a topic as complex as investing with little snippets being exchanged. I realize that many of the people on the board are here only seasonally and this venue is of great benefit to them but for those here on a more permanent or regular basis why don't we meet bi-monthly and give it a whirl ? We can then post the comments and topics discussed. Just my humble opinion. Maybe this should be a new thread COMMENTS ?

 

[Garner]

According to the numbers in ECAR MLS, in the entire market area, of all listings of houses, townhouses and condos, there were 9411 closings in 2005. In 2006 (to date) there have been 7658 closings. That is an 18% decrease. In the month of November 2005, there were 524 closings. In November 2006, there were 683 closings. That is a 30% increase.

 

[destinsm]

According to the numbers in ECAR MLS, in the entire market area, of all listings of houses, townhouses and condos, there were 9411 closings in 2005. In 2006 (to date) there have been 7658 closings. That is an 18% decrease. In the month of November 2005, there were 524 closings. In November 2006, there were 683 closings. That is a 30% increase.

Can someone tell me what the ECAR MLS market area includes and why it is so incredibly different than the FAR numbers then...

My assumption being that if the FWB metro area sales (includes Destin, FWB, Niceville, Crestview) was down 37% yoy in Nov for SFH's and down 8% yoy in Nov for Condo/TH's... How are the ECAR numbers so positive....

All the metro's up and down the Emerald Coast had terrible yoy numbers in Nov sales... but it is so positive according to ECAR... Very confusing...

 

[destinsm]

Can someone tell me what the ECAR MLS market area includes and why it is so incredibly different than the FAR numbers then...

My assumption being that if the FWB metro area sales (includes Destin, FWB, Niceville, Crestview) was down 37% yoy in Nov for SFH's and down 8% yoy in Nov for Condo/TH's... How are the ECAR numbers so positive....

All the metro's up and down the Emerald Coast had terrible yoy numbers in Nov sales... but it is so positive according to ECAR... Very confusing...

Now that I start looking into the numbers even deeper it gets even more confusing... Nov 05 data (from FAR) shows Existing Home Sales at 322 for FWB MSA...

Then when the give the Nov 06 data at 154 Existing Home Sales they magically drop (revise???) the compared Nov 05 Existing Home Sales to 245...

If they used the originally quoted 322 sales that they gave last year it would actually be a sales decline of 52% yoy not the stated 37% sales decline.....

I guess we can conclude from this that the NAR's statistics are crap