Real Estate Supply

[SHELLY]

And what about my "Imminent Economic Meltdown"...Shelly, where is it?

Red,

Not sure....post your assets and cashflow stats and I'll pencil out an estimate.

Business aside, I want to congratulate you on the one-year anniversary of this thread--my how times flies! I also think your thread may have the distinction of having the most views (maybe it will get to 10,000?) ! :clap_1:

Happy New Years Red!

This one's for you.

 

[goofer]

The U.S. is encouraging a weaker dollar to help the balance of trade dilemna. A weaker dollar makes U.S.goods more competitive overseas and conversely foreign goods more expensive here. That will cause a minor uptick in inflation here but nothing to get alarmed about. At the margin, I really don't think a weak dollar will cause foreigners to abandon buying our debt. I do think interest rates will be appreciably lower in 6 months (50 bps).

 

[SHELLY]

The U.S. is encouraging a weaker dollar to help the balance of trade dilemna. A weaker dollar makes U.S.goods more competitive overseas and conversely foreign goods more expensive here. That will cause a minor uptick in inflation here but nothing to get alarmed about. At the margin, I really don't think a weak dollar will cause foreigners to abandon buying our debt. I do think interest rates will be appreciably lower in 6 months (50 bps).

What do you see that would cause the Fed to lower the rates? (Threat of recession from the housing market tanking?)


.

 

[goofer]

A general slowdown in economic activity. And as you know from my prior posts regarding the stock market, I listen and observe what markets are doing. Accordingly with fed funds at 5.25% and the 10 year 50 + bps below that , the bond market has been telling us that the fed will begin lowering rates the second half of the year, imo.

 

[hi n dry]

I am hearing horror stories about thousands of Panama Beach condos that are for sale and more are being built.

Does anyone have actual data of the extent of excess inventory in PCB?

How is all this inventory going to be absorbed?

Who can afford to pay the enormous association fees, and escalating flood and windstorm insurance, and property taxes plus the mortgage?

To get any positive cash flow you would have to charge astronomical rent which no one would be willing to pay.

Is this a catastrophe in the making?

Is PCB going to end up being a ghost town of abandoned high-rises?

 

[00seer00]

The condo market is ugly, but someone will own the Condos even if its the Banks and they will be rented. They wont cash flow but they will rent them buy the week for what they can get. This will Bring ALLOT of new people here for the great rental deals, this will be good for the commercial sector and a very small percentage will buy a condo for their personal use. Eventually the supply will draw down and prices will be stable. Just my opinion for what its worth.

 

[SHELLY]

The condo market is ugly, but someone will own the Condos even if its the Banks and they will be rented. They wont cash flow but they will rent them buy the week for what they can get. This will Bring ALLOT of new people here for the great rental deals, this will be good for the commercial sector and a very small percentage will buy a condo for their personal use. Eventually the supply will draw down and prices will be stable. Just my opinion for what its worth.

Ditto!








Except I would add "Once upon a time" at the beginning of the post and "All lived happily ever after" at the end.

 

[SHELLY]

I am hearing horror stories about thousands of Panama Beach condos that are for sale and more are being built.
Is this a catastrophe in the making?
Is PCB going to end up being a ghost town of abandoned high-rises?

Sounds like a great cliff-hanger for a Soap Opera....all that's missing is the organ-music bridges to punctuate the dramatic moments.

Take a moment to wrap your mind around this question: "Who exactly is carrying the risk??"

.
Also noticed this thread has blown through the 10,000 view mark...:clap_1:
A SoWal record! Way to go Red!

.

 

[Mango]

The condo market is ugly, but someone will own the Condos even if its the Banks and they will be rented. They wont cash flow but they will rent them buy the week for what they can get. This will Bring ALLOT of new people here for the great rental deals, this will be good for the commercial sector and a very small percentage will buy a condo for their personal use. Eventually the supply will draw down and prices will be stable. Just my opinion for what its worth.

:roll: ALLOT of wisdom from the Sunny Hills lots [ame="http://www.sowal.com/bb/showpost.php?p=189166&postcount=18"]"Ponch Pusher"[/ame]

 

[Jdarg]

:roll: ALLOT of wisdom from the Sunny Hills lots "Ponch Pusher"

I thought of ol' Ponch last night. He gets a mention in the new Carl Hiaasen book, and of course is hawking some lousy development somewhere in Florida.....