Real Estate Supply

[Mango]

ok... now that I know the price, I would like some Goobers. Do you think the price will drop a bit if I wait until next week to buy?

It is freezing here in Houston and I am wishing I was there. Is it terribly cold this week? If so, stay warm if not, enjoy yourselves and be so glad!!!

I am sure someone from the Peanuts Gallery will chime in with the price of nuts at some point.

 

[Miss Kitty]

ok... now that I know the price, I would like some Goobers. Do you think the price will drop a bit if I wait until next week to buy?

It is freezing here in Houston and I am wishing I was there. Is it terribly cold this week? If so, stay warm if not, enjoy yourselves and be so glad!!!

Hey neighbor! You got frozen stuff there? I am getting ready to call my daddy and make sure he stays home today.

Re: RE

If you have it, enjoy it.
If you don't have it, buy it.

...have a nice day!

 

[TooFarTampa]

Question for all the realtors out there. I'm wondering how many of the current sellers fall into the following categories:

1) Must sell (either because they are purchasing something else or in real danger of foreclosure)

2) Want to sell because the market is no longer a good short-term or mid-term investment

3) Want to sell because they are tired of dealing with a second home or rental property

4) Are still "testing the waters" and looking to cash in on an investment of several years ago.

Where is all this supply coming from? Are there this many people in severe trouble? Are there still a lot of No. 4s out there, or far more No. 1s? I'm just curious as to why people who don't have to sell would even put their house on the market right now. I'd love to see what local realtors are hearing and seeing. Thanks.

SHELLY, would you bring me some SnoCaps while I wait for someone (besides yourself -- we know you are not a realtor ;-) ) to answer my question?

The reason I ask is because when the buyers do come back, it may be in a steady trickle, but it won't be a flood. If all of these people need to sell it will take a LONG time to get rid of the inventory. If there are people who don't need to sell and will be helped by, say, changes in the insurance and property tax laws, and then take their properties off the market, we will see more of a balance much more quickly. It would seem so, anyway.

 

[JoshMclean]

I think many people still think they can get too much for their home. Many of these people are coming to that realization and pulling off of the market. In detached single family homes from Destin throught Inlet Beach, the inventory has dropped for 5 straight months. The inventory in July of 2006 was 2,605. As of December that number had dropped to 2206. Although sales had dropped during the slow season, so had the inventory. Really showing that those people are beginning to pull off of the market. I believe that number will also drop this month. I will let you know as soon as the month comes to an end. The sooner these people do pull off of the market we will see more of a stabilization. Although, buyers are better off with the high inventory. People are much more willing to deal when 5 houses on their street are on the market.

 

[Smiling JOe]

SHELLY, would you bring me some SnoCaps while I wait for someone (besides yourself -- we know you are not a realtor ;-) ) to answer my question?

The reason I ask is because when the buyers do come back, it may be in a steady trickle, but it won't be a flood. If all of these people need to sell it will take a LONG time to get rid of the inventory. If there are people who don't need to sell and will be helped by, say, changes in the insurance and property tax laws, and then take their properties off the market, we will see more of a balance much more quickly. It would seem so, anyway.

TFT, guessing the percentage of each of your categories would be difficult. There are several other reasons why some people are selling. From talking with many sellers, including FSBO (for sale by owners), I hear them saying that they do not have to sell. I think they are the majority by far. (one example is the vacant lot next to one I have listed. Basically, the lots are no different regarding type of lot, density, tree coverage, views, access, etc, yet the ForSaleByOwner (FSBO) is priced almost three times the price of the one I have actively listed. That FSBO seller has called me several times to check my price, but has never changed his price. He says that he doesn't have to sell.)

As for the "must sellers," the answer isn't so easy. Many of the must-sellers have more than one property listed, and when they sell one of the properties, they will likely pull the others off the market. This is what I hear from many of them. Some of these people may have between 2-5 properties currently available.

Then, there are other wishful, but over-priced, sellers who have pulled their listings off the market until it picks back up. So, when the market does begin to show a substantial increase in activity, look for these to be back on the market. Again, many of these are currently very overpriced based on the current market. They do not classify as have to sell and are wishful fishing.

I don't hear many sellers saying they fit into category number 2, though I am sure there are a few. In fact, I have been working with buyers who are buying for the opposite reason, though we are talking more "mid-term" rather than short term. (3-5 years) -- I know some people consider this long term, but I am more conservative.

There are a few who fall into your cat. 3, those who are tired of dealing with rental property, but those are very, very few.

 

[nmosley]

Go ahead and get me the Goobers...anybody want some?

Sue Shore, it is freezing this morning and I was pelted gently with some frozen mix earlier today while walking our dog. I would definitely recommend that your Dad stay indoors because it is just so bitter and they are expecting on and off precipitation all throughout the morning into the early afternoon. A few overpasses are closed and HISD schools are closed, but we are not nearly as hard-hit as areas up north of the city. Have an awesome day!

 

[TooFarTampa]

TFT, guessing the percentage of each of your categories would be difficult. There are several other reasons why some people are selling. From talking with many sellers, including FSBO (for sale by owners), I hear them saying that they do not have to sell. I think they are the majority by far. (one example is the vacant lot next to one I have listed. Basically, the lots are no different regarding type of lot, density, tree coverage, views, access, etc, yet the ForSaleByOwner (FSBO) is priced almost three times the price of the one I have actively listed. That FSBO seller has called me several times to check my price, but has never changed his price. He says that he doesn't have to sell.)

As for the "must sellers," the answer isn't so easy. Many of the must-sellers have more than one property listed, and when they sell one of the properties, they will likely pull the others off the market. This is what I hear from many of them. Some of these people may have between 2-5 properties currently available.

Then, there are other wishful, but over-priced, sellers who have pulled their listings off the market until it picks back up. So, when the market does begin to show a substantial increase in activity, look for these to be back on the market. Again, many of these are currently very overpriced based on the current market. They do not classify as have to sell and are wishful fishing.

I don't hear many sellers saying they fit into category number 2, though I am sure there are a few. In fact, I have been working with buyers who are buying for the opposite reason, though we are talking more "mid-term" rather than short term. (3-5 years) -- I know some people consider this long term, but I am more conservative.

There are a few who fall into your cat. 3, those who are tired of dealing with rental property, but those are very, very few.

THANK YOU SJ (and Josh too, ). All of this makes sense. I really didn't need percentages; I was just looking for insight. Knowing the motivations of some of these sellers leads me to believe that in the mid-term (which I also consider 3-5 years) things look pretty good. It also is my opinion that if the Legislature can hammer out something intelligent related to insurance this week, more buyers will step forward. Maybe not a flood, but more buyers nonetheless. Now somebody pass the

 

[Smiling JOe]

We are only 17 days into the 2007 and I have already written two contracts for homes, closed on one of the two, and expect to write an offer on another one this afternoon. I have several other people who are ready to buy homes in the next two months. These are people looking for primary residences. I am definitely seeing much more business and interest than in 2006. I think 2007 is going to be better than the lull people are expecting, and I think that the 3-5 year term will see substantial appreciation for people buying the better valued properties today.

 

[hi n dry]

We are only 17 days into the 2007 and I have already written two contracts for homes, closed on one of the two, and expect to write an offer on another one this afternoon. I have several other people who are ready to buy homes in the next two months. These are people looking for primary residences. I am definitely seeing much more business and interest than in 2006. I think 2007 is going to be better than the lull people are expecting, and I think that the 3-5 year term will see substantial appreciation for people buying the better valued properties today.

Thank you SJ, you are very generous taking the time to share what is actually happening "on the ground".

In what price range and locations are you seeing the most interest?

 

[Smiling JOe]

Thank you SJ, you are very generous taking the time to share what is actually happening "on the ground".

In what price range and locations are you seeing the most interest?

Pt Washington area has been the main focus, and price range in the $300K's.

Almost forgot, I have also closed on a lot in the Pt Washington area this year.