Tropical Storm Fay

[30A Skunkape]

Average the spaghetti strands and I am thinking Port St Joe(ish)
http://weather.sun-sentinel.com/tropical/tracking/at200806_model.html

 

[30A Skunkape]

If it's a tropical storm that comes through around Wednesday, I'm assuming no need to evacuate because that's like a really, really big rain/wind storm and we just stay inside until it passes, right? There was this HUGE storm on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning - how many MPH was that storm? Seemed pretty wild to me.

Yes. Tropical storms do not require evacuation. There was a period there Wednesday morning which was very reminiscent of tropical storms. Not too big of a deal if you can roll with short power outages.

 

[Bob]

We had a Cat 1[Charlie-2004] that literally kicked our arses here in O'town. Most of my neighbors had no power for a week, and downed oak trees were blocking streets. We missed the entire Olympics as it was over two weeks for cable to be restored. Do not discount a Cat 1 if you are directly in it's path.

 

[Miss Kitty]

I don't know

People knowing people.
Buy water and beanie weenies they say.
Cantore appears.

Good try!

Although I appreciate creativity, was that supposed to be an haiku? If so your cup runneth over by a few syllables. How about this.

Drama increasing
Lights, Camera, Action, Go
Stormtracker appears

or

Stay away Ms. Faye
No vacancy in Sowal
Unwelcome tourist

...the Haiku Hero strikes again! Save, please!

Notice that it's "Fay" with no "e." Don't you just hate when people misspell your name?

I hope that Fay is not as powerful as Dennis.;-)

Oh, my...I thought the same thing...is the daughter representing this year?

I knew it was back to school there, but this is no funn!

 

[TreeFrog]

Average the spaghetti strands and I am thinking Port St Joe(ish)
http://weather.sun-sentinel.com/tropical/tracking/at200806_model.html

In recent seasons, Jeff Masters has said that GFDL, GFS, UKMET, and NOGAPS were historically the best at predicting track (if not necessarily at predicting intensity, but that's another topic).

But HWRF is a new and important model. NOAA commissioned its development as the eventual replacement for GFDL. It came online last year. They expect it to become the centerpiece of the suite of models they consult.

From the 2AM model runs
GFDL and HWRF - up the west coast of the peninsula
UKMET - Apalach
GFS - St. Marks and then Tallahassee
NOGAPS - Not shown on these runs on wunderground

In Jeff Masters' comparison of the accuracy of models (in his blog a couple of years ago) he noted that the official NWS/NHC forecast is consistently a more accurate track prediction than any individual model. If you read their 4-times-a-day forecasts, you'll find that they are usually close to the model consensus, but don't adhere blindly to it, applying some judgement instead.

As of 5 AM EDT, they say St. Marks.

 

[30A Skunkape]

Well I am thinking lots of folks are changing their beach bound plans now.

 

[NotDeadYet]

Nice analysis, TreeFrog, thanks.
I myself could not remember what Masters said about the models, so I appreciate this. Did you take notes?

 

[TreeFrog]

Nice analysis, TreeFrog, thanks.
I myself could not remember what Masters said about the models, so I appreciate this. Did you take notes?

Saved the blog.

 

[DD]

Well I am thinking lots of folks are changing their beach bound plans now.

Uh oh. I know someone who's headed that way. Hope she doesn't end up spending her vacay in Hattiesburg!

 

[30A Skunkape]

Uh oh. I know someone who's headed that way. Hope she doesn't end up spending her vacay in Hattiesburg!

Well, the rain is coming down steady here now. The map shows rain all along the gulf coast from Corpus to Tampa. Probably not the best beach week.