IMO, Alys Beach will fair this storm very well. EBSCO has almost nothing in the land, and the cost of land is what is pinching most developers right now. Alys Beach has the ability to draw only the top money from around the country. They are not looking at the same buyers as the rest of 30A. I doubt you will see EBSCO lowering their prices because Alys Beach really doesn't have any competition in our area, and my guess is that they can hang on through our down market. You must also consider the fact that for the buyers whom they are targeting, a couple hundred grand isn't worth negotiating. If their buyer's want the product, they simply write the check. Our current real estate market conditions will not greatly influence the purchasing decisions of those high-end buyers.
Time will tell, but so far the market has not responded well to Alys. Who knows if it is price, architectural style or both that are hurting sales. Sales in RM, SS, WC and WS have been far outstripping Alys for the last 18 months or so. While WC may not be everyones cup of tea, the general market seems to be much more accepting of the product in WC based on sales over the last 2 years compared to the other major developments along 30A.
Just like WS West, WS North, Phase IV at WC, The Preserve, and Draper Lake, it will be a long, long time before Alys gets anywhere near built out at the current rate of sales. I still believe WC, RM and WS have a distinct sales advantage over Alys due to the stage of completion of these developments and the broader market appeal of the architectural style. Alys is unique and I like the construction methodology. But, IMO, Alys will appeal to a much narrower segment of the population due to the monotone white stucco on all the buildings, the lack of greenery around many of the homes and the zero lot lines on many of the lots.
Remember, the cost of the raw land is nominal, but they have tens of millions invested in infrastructure, amenities, unsold homes, etc. Not a nominal investment overall. Also keep in mind that EBSCO's primary business is publishing, not real estate.
It will be interesting to see how Alys plays out over the next few years. And, when the market picks back up a bit, how Alys fares against its competition along 30A. So, far the competition is beating them hands down.