Calling The Bottom

[Bobby J]

Re: The bottom has arrived

If the bottom has arrived, why are sellers still dropping prices?

Does this mean once we are at the bottom sellers will stop dropping prices? IMO, sellers are getting a clearer picture of what it will take to sell their property. We are just going through the process.

When a property sells does that mean it was at the bottom? I have given up trying to figure it all out. We are very busy and very grateful that the market is moving. The end.....

 

[Smiling JOe]

Re: The bottom has arrived

a little insider data for you non-Realtors. In all of South Walton, including Miramar Bch, the pending sales for the last three months are as follows, for Residential Homes, Townhomes, and Condos, combined. Keep in mind that pending sales are simply listings which are under sales contracts. That doesn't necessarily mean that they will close. They may not. The only reason for me posting this data which is collected from Emerald Coast Assoc. of Realtors, is to show the increase in activity which has been buzzing lately. The data shows :

Pending Sales for Combined Residential Homes in South Walton:

2007
Sep - $48.5 million
Oct - $45.4 million
Nov - $52.6 million
Dec - $39.3 million

2008
Jan - $40.7 million
Feb - $88.8 million
Mar - $84.3 million

 

[dunelover]

Re: The bottom has arrived

a little insider data for you non-Realtors. In all of South Walton, including Miramar Bch, the pending sales for the last three months are as follows, for Residential Homes, Townhomes, and Condos, combined. Keep in mind that pending sales are simply listings which are under sales contracts. That doesn't necessarily mean that they will close. They may not. The only reason for me posting this data which is collected from Emerald Coast Assoc. of Realtors, is to show the increase in activity which has been buzzing lately. The data shows :

Pending Sales for Combined Residential Homes in South Walton:

2007
Sep - $48.5 million
Oct - $45.4 million
Nov - $52.6 million
Dec - $39.3 million

2008
Jan - $40.7 million
Feb - $88.8 million
Mar - $84.3 million

SJ--thanks for the work on those numbers. I believe you guys when you say it is buzzing. I have also heard that sales pick up typically around spring break. So, is comparing first qtr 08, to 4th qtr 07 really accurate?

 

[flyforfun]

Re: The bottom has arrived

So you recommend others buy condos now lest they'll be kicking themselves in 5 years, yet you wouldn't buy them yourself....so can we conclude that you're into self-flagellation?


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Shelton, there are a lot of good condo buys available. But personally I don't want any more toilets to keep up with. If I did not own a condo, I would be buying one now. What is rapidly disappearing along 30-A is ocean/beach view lots outside the large developments. Once the mandated build out properties have homes sitting on them, the lots left with a view are going to rapidly increase. From an investors point of view, these are more appealing to me than a condo. J

 

[fisher]

Re: The bottom has arrived

a little insider data for you non-Realtors. In all of South Walton, including Miramar Bch, the pending sales for the last three months are as follows, for Residential Homes, Townhomes, and Condos, combined. Keep in mind that pending sales are simply listings which are under sales contracts. That doesn't necessarily mean that they will close. They may not. The only reason for me posting this data which is collected from Emerald Coast Assoc. of Realtors, is to show the increase in activity which has been buzzing lately. The data shows :

Pending Sales for Combined Residential Homes in South Walton:

2007
Sep - $48.5 million
Oct - $45.4 million
Nov - $52.6 million
Dec - $39.3 million

2008
Jan - $40.7 million
Feb - $88.8 million
Mar - $84.3 million

What were comparable numbers for Jan, Feb and March 2007? Has activity picked up versus prior year or is this simply the normal seasonal uptick in activity?

I ask this because according to the Real Trend Report ACTUAL sales of SFH's through February are actually flat with prior year at $97 million and condo sales are down by $131 million or 77%. Looks like actual sales are not picking up versus prior year and your data may indicate only the normal seasonal uptick in activity.

 

[Smiling JOe]

Re: The bottom has arrived

SJ--thanks for the work on those numbers. I believe you guys when you say it is buzzing. I have also heard that sales pick up typically around spring break. So, is comparing first qtr 08, to 4th qtr 07 really accurate?

My intent was to show the increase in activity during the recent months, rather than comparing quarters. I don't think the contracts written in Feb and Mar were related to Spring Break in any way.

 

[flyguy]

Re: The bottom has arrived

If the bottom has arrived, why are sellers still dropping prices?

Here is my theory on this and why I jumped in at this point.

Most real estate is still way overpriced. Most sellers can not or will not accept where the market is. They continue to drop their prices but not enough to get to where stuff sells. Joe tracks this on his website and I am sure the majority of price decreases are from extremely overpriced to just way overpriced.

I have about 5 buildings that I really like and keep track of prices. Over the last 2+ years a chart of their actual sales prices was constantly going down. But over the last 6 months or so they have or are developing a flat line for actual sale prices. When a seller drops his price down to that line it sells almost immediately. Wether that line is the bottom of the market for that building or a lull in the decline I can't tell you.

As for me, I jumped in because a condo in my favorite building on my favorite floor dropped their asking price to that line. I made them a cash offer for considerably less. I have to tell you I was amazed they took it. But I am thrilled because I got what I wanted. And while prices may be lower in 6 months, the condo I really wanted would most likely be long gone.

JMHO,
Flyguy

 

[Smiling JOe]

Re: The bottom has arrived

(Source: Emerald Coast Assoc. of Realtors)

2005
Oct - $28.2 million
Nov - $71.1 million
Dec - $19.7 million
2006
Jan - $23.1 million
Feb - $25.7 million
Mar - $28.0 million
**************

2006
Oct - $43.5 million
Nov - $39.5 million
Dec - $28.8 million
2007
Jan - $48.6 million
Feb - $66.2 million
Mar - $110.3 million
***************

2007
Oct - $45.4 million
Nov - $52.6 million
Dec - $39.3 million
2008
Jan - $40.7 million
Feb - $88.8 million
Mar - $84.3 million

Again, I post the numbers only to show an increase in activity during the last couple of months. This in no way indicates where we are on the curve.

I apologize that the numbers aren't side by side. I tried, but it screwed up and combined them.

 

[SHELLY]

Re: The bottom has arrived

a little insider data for you non-Realtors. In all of South Walton, including Miramar Bch, the pending sales for the last three months are as follows, for Residential Homes, Townhomes, and Condos, combined. Keep in mind that pending sales are simply listings which are under sales contracts. That doesn't necessarily mean that they will close. They may not. The only reason for me posting this data which is collected from Emerald Coast Assoc. of Realtors, is to show the increase in activity which has been buzzing lately. The data shows :

Pending Sales for Combined Residential Homes in South Walton:

2007
Sep - $48.5 million
Oct - $45.4 million
Nov - $52.6 million
Dec - $39.3 million

2008
Jan - $40.7 million
Feb - $88.8 million
Mar - $84.3 million

So they don't know the "closed" sales (vs pending sales) numbers from these previous months yet?--or haven't any of them closed.


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[SHELLY]

Re: The bottom has arrived

Here is my theory on this and why I jumped in at this point.

Most real estate is still way overpriced. Most sellers can not or will not accept where the market is. They continue to drop their prices but not enough to get to where stuff sells. Joe tracks this on his website and I am sure the majority of price decreases are from extremely overpriced to just way overpriced.

I have about 5 buildings that I really like and keep track of prices. Over the last 2+ years a chart of their actual sales prices was constantly going down. But over the last 6 months or so they have or are developing a flat line for actual sale prices. When a seller drops his price down to that line it sells almost immediately. Wether that line is the bottom of the market for that building or a lull in the decline I can't tell you.

As for me, I jumped in because a condo in my favorite building on my favorite floor dropped their asking price to that line. I made them a cash offer for considerably less. I have to tell you I was amazed they took it. But I am thrilled because I got what I wanted. And while prices may be lower in 6 months, the condo I really wanted would most likely be long gone.

JMHO,
Flyguy

FG,

Your purchase makes lots of sense. But do you actually think you'll be kicking yourself in the arse in a couple of years if you don't buy a few more?


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