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seagrovegirl

Beach Fanatic
Feb 9, 2008
3,828
464
Historic Old Point Washington
Re: The bottom has arrived

Not cool:cool:, just like to get buzzed at sunset on gin and tonic:blink:. Never called a bottom before, but I sure will be looking at a few from my new condo.

Now don't get the wrong idea gayboi, not that there is anything wrong with it.

Flyguy

Have another drinky............:blink:
 

Joe Mammy

Beach Lover
Mar 26, 2007
140
40
Re: The bottom has arrived

Joe...explain why is this time different than these?
Shelley-
I respect your posts and find your musings humorous and poignant.

I'm trying to find new market indicators. Short sales are prevalent like never before (at least in my tenor).

My short sale ratio theory at least inspired you to read (possibly reread)my last 22 market pulses - or not.

"As long as the number of short sales is on the rise then the market will continue to fall. Hmmmm, rising short sales = declining market"

I was hoping for you to tear into the theory, not my previous optimistic outlooks for Destin...of which I am still very bullish.

Thanks for the feedback.
 

SHELLY

SoWal Insider
Jun 13, 2005
5,763
803
Re: The bottom has arrived

Shelley-
I respect your posts and find your musings humorous and poignant.

I'm trying to find new market indicators. Short sales are prevalent like never before (at least in my tenor).

My short sale ratio theory at least inspired you to read (possibly reread)my last 22 market pulses - or not.

"As long as the number of short sales is on the rise then the market will continue to fall. Hmmmm, rising short sales = declining market"

I was hoping for you to tear into the theory, not my previous optimistic outlooks for Destin...of which I am still very bullish.

Thanks for the feedback.

Joe...I like ya--not like 'like-like,' but just like "like." I told you before that I think you've got a great website and I do read your "market pulses."

In many of your more current "market pulses," when you've come to the realization that the RE bubble had indeed popped (although I know you can't admit it outright lest you be tied to a "For Sale" sign and beaten senseless by balloon-wielding REALTOR? brethren) you stated "Keep an eye on the Destin Seller's Sentiment and when you start seeing green you'll know we've hit bottom and are on our way back up." THAT makes a helluvalot more sense than the "Ding Ding Ding I hear a bottom" or the "∑ Short Sale + Rising Sales ≈50% √Declining prices" mumbo jumbo.

I'll bet you're among the few good <in my opinion> REALTORS? in this area because you realize that if you can't stand up to the scrutiny I'm dishing out and answering the hard-hitting, skeptical comments, you're doomed to fail in this newly developing market. The majority of the current crop of buyers aren't going to be sucked in by razzle-dazzle smoke-and-mirror presentations and worn-out NAR catchphrases. Today's buyers have got hard money to put down and solid credit backing them up...there's a reason for that (I think you know the answer).

Just my 2?...it's worth what you paid for it.

:D


Shel.
 
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elgordoboy

Beach Fanatic
Feb 9, 2007
2,507
888
I no longer stay in Dune Allen
Re: The bottom has arrived

Joe...explain why is this time different than these?


Sep 2005: "If you are thinking about moving to Destin you may never find a more affordable time to fulfill your dreams."

Oct 2005: "As the temperatures drop the real estate market is finding it's way back up. Now is the time to take advantage of the soft market and get those offers in! "

Jan 2006: "Condos and single family homes have been reduced back to realistic prices after astronomic appreciation. If you have ever entertained the idea of buying property in the Emerald Coast you will probably never find a better time to make an offer. "

Mar 2006: "Everyday we get closer to finding the bottom and when we do the appreciation process will rev back up. There has not been a better time to be shopping for Destin property in the last three years."

Apr 2006: "Where is the bottom? That is the million dollar question - literally. I was talking with a broker who has lived and worked in Destin for many years. He said this is the best buyer's market he's seen since 1986! But noone can time the market perfectly, if you wait too long you may miss an opportunity."

Jun 2006: "If you have had your eyes on owning a home in Destin you may never find a better time than the present."
I cringed, for Mr. Mammy seems to be credible and honest, not simply cheerleading as many do. I am impressed with his professionalism. (I do not know the man)
Shelley-
I respect your posts and find your musings humorous and poignant.

I'm trying to find new market indicators. Short sales are prevalent like never before (at least in my tenor).

My short sale ratio theory at least inspired you to read (possibly reread)my last 22 market pulses - or not.

"As long as the number of short sales is on the rise then the market will continue to fall. Hmmmm, rising short sales = declining market"

I was hoping for you to tear into the theory, not my previous optimistic outlooks for Destin...of which I am still very bullish.

Thanks for the feedback.
Superb response. I should learn how to interact as an educated, mannered adult from the example of this post.

Joe...I like ya--not like 'like-like,' but just like "like." I told you before that I think you've got a great website and I do read your "market pulses."

In many of your more current "market pulses," when you've come to the realization that the RE bubble had indeed popped (although I know you can't admit it outright lest you be tied to a "For Sale" sign and beaten senseless by balloon-wielding REALTOR? brethren) you stated "Keep an eye on the Destin Seller's Sentiment and when you start seeing green you'll know we've hit bottom and are on our way back up." THAT makes a helluvalot more sense than the "Ding Ding Ding I hear a bottom" or the "∑ Short Sale + Rising Sales ≈50% √Declining prices" mumbo jumbo.

I'll bet you're among the few good <in my opinion> REALTORS? in this area because you realize that if you can't stand up to the scrutiny I'm dishing out and answering the hard-hitting, skeptical comments, you're doomed to fail in this newly developing market. The majority of the current crop of buyers aren't going to be sucked in by razzle-dazzle smoke-and-mirror presentations and worn-out NAR catchphrases. Today's buyers have got hard money to put down and solid credit backing them up...there's a reason for that (I think you know the answer).

Just my 2?...it's worth what you paid for it.

:D


Shel.

Excellent as well. This shows the poster to be a fair minded individual not all "gloom and doom". Repped both.
 

sandybanks

Beach Fanatic
Mar 15, 2008
264
15
In a nice place
Re: The bottom has arrived

Well, if I were giving advice to any Realtor it would be not to buy that big boat just yet. We have a while to go before we hit bottom and before it is over, many will know what it is like to go to Walmart and see some of the shelves empty.

Right now the Fed is trying to save the big boys in the Market, but the common man is being thrown out in the snow. This Country is headed in the direction of a Third World Country. Do I hope I am right? No, I would love nothing better than to have egg on my face when this thing shows how ugly it is going to get.

It could take years for this thing to turn around and even then it will never go back to the way it was a few years ago. But then what do I know.:wave:
 
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SHELLY

SoWal Insider
Jun 13, 2005
5,763
803
Re: The bottom has arrived

Well, if I were giving advice to any Realtor it would be not to buy that big boat just yet. We have a while to go before we hit bottom and before it is over, many will know what it is like to go to Walmart and see some of the shelves empty.

It's going to be tough going for a while, but it's going to be even worse for the people who insist on sticking their fingers in their ears and singing "La-la-la-la."

Three cases in point hot off the presses:

Asian Inflation Begins to Sting U.S. Shoppers
The free ride for American consumers is ending. For two generations, Americans have imported goods produced ever more cheaply from a succession of low-wage countries — first Japan and Korea, then China, and now increasingly places like Vietnam and India.
Developing countries have had bouts of inflation before. Indeed, some are famous for them, like Brazil, which experienced triple-digit inflation in the late 1980s and early 1990s. But two things make this time different, and together promise to send prices higher at Wal-Mart and supermarkets alike in the United States, just as the possibility of recession looms.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/08/b...=business&oref=slogin&oref=slogin&oref=slogin

Credit crunch losses will top $945-billion: IMF
The International Monetary Fund is pegging the losses related to the global financial crisis at a minimum of $945-billion (U.S.), far surpassing the costs associated with the Asian financial crisis and the U.S. savings and loans crisis that marked previous decades.

In one of its most pessimistic reports on the credit crunch to date, the IMF said Tuesday that financial stability has deteriorated significantly, and warned that the side-effects of the credit problems will be harsh.

“What began as a fairly contained deterioration in portions of the U.S. subprime market has metastasized into severe dislocations in broader credit and funding markets that now pose risks to the macroeconomic outlook in the United States and globally,” the report states.

“It is now clear that the current turmoil is more than simply a liquidity event, reflecting deep-seated balance sheet fragilities and weak capital bases, which means its effects are likely to be broader, deeper, and more protracted,” the Fund says in its Global Financial Stability Report, released Tuesday morning.
http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080408.wimf0409/BNStory/robNews/home

Energy Department says gas prices could peak at $4 a gallon this spring, curbing demand
NEW YORK - Retail gas prices could climb as high as $4 a gallon this summer, but prices at such lofty levels will make many Americans think twice about hitting the road this summer, the Energy Department said Tuesday.
"It is important to note ... that even if the national average monthly gasoline price peaks around $3.60 per gallon this summer, it is possible that prices at some point will cross the $4 per gallon threshold," the EIA said.
http://www.startribune.com/business/17383324.html



----------------------------

It will be better to prepare for the worst than not be ready at all.

.
 
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Matt J

SWGB
May 9, 2007
24,861
9,665
Re: The bottom has arrived

Wow! Well mannered discourse, people being polite? I believe we have hit the bottom of rudeness!

Seriously, no offense to flyguy or joemammy was intended.

flyguy, good luck on your investment I hope you purchased at the bottom of the market.

joemammy, good articles and research. I respect anyone who is doing research and still working in this market as opposed to those that are selling cell phones or posting blogs.
 
Re: The bottom has arrived

I believe what we are seeing is the National Debt coming to call. The symptoms we are seeing are what the national debt consequences look like in real life. Optimistic mindsets can only push back the consequences so many times. I don't see how or when we have ever done anything real and lasting as a country to counter what debt we have piling up. I used to wonder what it would look like when our savers and the rest of the world stopped buying our debt paper. Either America needs to invent something tangible to sell and then use profits to pay down debt or we can all reach into our pockets at the same time and pay off at least a chunk of the natiional debt. I don't see either of those things happening any time soon. Until then those that buy debt are playing hot potato.
I am unedjucated in macro economics. I have to strip things down to basics and superimpose onto a macro level. Does anyone out there have a better wisdom base who can point out an example of something macro-economicly that we have ever done to affect the national debt?
 

ASH

Beach Fanatic
Feb 4, 2008
2,153
443
Roosevelt, MN
Re: The bottom has arrived

Regardless of the type of information needing to be shared to make this thread productive, anybody having this information will be able to make more informed decisions in the future. Please keep up the dialogue. There are probably a lot of lurkers really appreciating this thread.
 

Hop

Beach Fanatic
Oct 1, 2006
2,228
182
52
Dune Allen
www.myspace.com
Re: The bottom has arrived

:clap::clap::clap:
Thats how I feel. I waited until I got a great deal on exactly what I wanted. There may well be more downside but I did not want to miss the boat on this buying opportunity. And what a view!:cool:

Flyguy
:clap::clap::clap:
 
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