Calling The Bottom

[Matt J]

Re: The bottom has arrived

I think the bottom will be here when the slope begins to change

That was my understanding of how a curve works.

 

[Lisa Ruby]

Re: The bottom has arrived

I think we're skidding at the bottom and might be for a while yet before the curve moves upward.

 

[sandybanks]

Re: The bottom has arrived

I knew a man who thought he had hit the very bottom, then bam he found out there was a root cellar.

 

[Santiago]

Re: The bottom has arrived

Well it must be the official bottom because I just bought in.

PCB beachfront on a low floor (and I mean on the beach). Built in 2004/2005. About 1500 square feet finished out high end.

I predict nothing but up from this point forward.

Joking aside while I hope it is the bottom, I made the age old mistake of falling in love with a place and bought sooner than I planned.

Maybe still some downside but I am in. Its all about the view at happy hour!

Good luck to all,
Flyguy

I'm not sure about the bottom but I remember talking several years ago to one of the partners of what was the largest rental management company in the area about his holdings. He owned 1st floor units in several projects that they helped market and manage. I vividly remember him talking about how well they rented because of the easy access for children. Good luck with it and I'm betting its a pretty sound investment whether its the acutal bottom or not.

 

[Bobby J]

Re: The bottom has arrived

I think the bottom can not really be clear. Markets are so local in nature. We may be close here but Rockford, IL. may have a long way to go. I do know one fact. We are as busy as we have been in 2 years. Is this the bottom? Not sure, but it sure feels active. I think many economist have miscalculated how fast these foreclosures and short sales would leave the market place. Predicting the bottom is as dangerous as speculating. That's how we got in this mess!

 

[ASH]

Re: The bottom has arrived

Good graph Skunkape. That tells a local tale.

 

[Joe Mammy]

Re: The bottom has arrived

As of today in S. Walton East and West and South SRB we have 1447 active single family home listings, of those there are 83 short sales or roughly 6%. If you go through the pendings or under contract with contingencies you'll find over 50% are short sales. Why? Because they are supposedly market value. Search any subdivision for active listings and 9 times out of 10 the lowest priced properties are disclosed as short sales. They are priced low to attract offers of which most times the bank will counter.

Keep an eye on these numbers to find your bottom. When we see a decline in short sales either because the properties have been foreclosed or sold then I believe we have found bottom. As long as the number of short sales is on the rise then the market will continue to fall. Hmmmm, rising short sales = declining market, I like it.

According to Forbes recent article "Fire Sale" the banks are finally wising up and moving at a much more effective pace in dealing with short sales and are getting them executed and closed much faster:
http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2008/0407/040.html

I'm working on a new article that will go well in-depth here.

 

[SHELLY]

Re: The bottom has arrived

As of today in S. Walton East and West and South SRB we have 1447 active single family home listings, of those there are 83 short sales or roughly 6%. If you go through the pendings or under contract with contingencies you'll find over 50% are short sales. Why? Because they are supposedly market value. Search any subdivision for active listings and 9 times out of 10 the lowest priced properties are disclosed as short sales. They are priced low to attract offers of which most times the bank will counter.

Keep an eye on these numbers to find your bottom. When we see a decline in short sales either because the properties have been foreclosed or sold then I believe we have found bottom. As long as the number of short sales is on the rise then the market will continue to fall. Hmmmm, rising short sales = declining market, I like it.

According to Forbes recent article "Fire Sale" the banks are finally wising up and moving at a much more effective pace in dealing with short sales and are getting them executed and closed much faster:
http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2008/0407/040.html

I'm working on a new article that will go well in-depth here.

Joe...explain why is this time different than these?


Sep 2005: "If you are thinking about moving to Destin you may never find a more affordable time to fulfill your dreams."

Oct 2005: "As the temperatures drop the real estate market is finding it's way back up. Now is the time to take advantage of the soft market and get those offers in! "

Jan 2006: "Condos and single family homes have been reduced back to realistic prices after astronomic appreciation. If you have ever entertained the idea of buying property in the Emerald Coast you will probably never find a better time to make an offer. "

Mar 2006: "Everyday we get closer to finding the bottom and when we do the appreciation process will rev back up. There has not been a better time to be shopping for Destin property in the last three years."

Apr 2006: "Where is the bottom? That is the million dollar question - literally. I was talking with a broker who has lived and worked in Destin for many years. He said this is the best buyer's market he's seen since 1986! But noone can time the market perfectly, if you wait too long you may miss an opportunity."

Jun 2006: "If you have had your eyes on owning a home in Destin you may never find a better time than the present."

 

[ASH]

Re: The bottom has arrived

OOOH! OOOH! OOOH! Pick me! I know!

He has to because this is his livelyhood.
Nice work picking out all those quotes.
Ouch!

 

[flyguy]

Re: The bottom has arrived

flyguy you seem like a cool guy, but isn't this about the 2nd or 3rd bottom post you've called?

Not cool, just like to get buzzed at sunset on gin and tonic. Never called a bottom before, but I sure will be looking at a few from my new condo.

Now don't get the wrong idea gayboi, not that there is anything wrong with it.

Flyguy