Calling The Bottom

[SHELLY]

Re: Calling the bottom!

I was at the Tom Thumb in Dune Allen a couple of weeks back and heard some people in the Cheez-Its section talking quietly. I overheard that Shelly has someone following him(her) at all times whispering in his(her) ear "You are but a (wo)man, you are but a (wo)man" unsubstantiated rumor? history buff?

That would be Bobby J...he's been stalking me for quite some time.


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[SHELLY]

Re: Calling the bottom!

First let me say that I've been lurking on sowal for a couple of months and the fact that Shelly is responding to my posts makes me feel kinda flattered, kinda nervous. Whew, tread gently please, I'm new!

Hi!

No need to be nervous...unless you're pushing Amway or Preconstruction Condos.

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[SSGA]

Re: Calling the bottom!

I couldn't log on last night?

Big sigh of relief--no Amway and my bank actually told me that a)they wouldn't close on a condo without some serious scrutinization and no preconstruction at all and b)if they did close on a condo, they automatically take 5% off the top of the appraisal. Never heard of that one, but that's what they said when we were getting the prequalification letter.

We have not closed yet, scheduled for about 2 weeks. We do have a signed contract now, so maybe it really will happen.

What does "down the line" mean-is it real estate speak, sowal speak or do I just not get out enough?

 

[Bobby J]

Re: Calling the bottom!

I couldn't log on last night?

Big sigh of relief--no Amway and my bank actually told me that a)they wouldn't close on a condo without some serious scrutinization and no preconstruction at all and b)if they did close on a condo, they automatically take 5% off the top of the appraisal. Never heard of that one, but that's what they said when we were getting the prequalification letter.

We have not closed yet, scheduled for about 2 weeks. We do have a signed contract now, so maybe it really will happen.

What does "down the line" mean-is it real estate speak, sowal speak or do I just not get out enough?

"Down the Line" surfing lingo.... It meant bank has held for awhile.

 

[Bobby J]

Re: Calling the bottom!

That would be Bobby J...he's been stalking me for quite some time.


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You know you love it

 

[YoungFT]

Re: Calling the bottom!

If you believe that the current turmoil in the real estate market was caused by speculation fueled by lax lending standards, then you could conclude that the bottom will come as a result of the unwinding of these mortgages.

See the attached article...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/03/03/ccview103.xml

Here's my logic for how this relates to Walton County,

Assume this trend is similar for Florida mortgages. If peak adjustment period is March, and foreclosure proceedings start 120-150 days delinquent (depends on the mortgage agreement - could be sooner), these Option ARM's will be pinching homeowners in the June - July timeframe.

But summer rental income may afford these homeowners some time. Once the peak rental months end, the homeowners will simply walk away.

As a side note, I crossed paths with an old acquaintance yesterday and she shared with me that she was inches away from losing her home because she couldn't afford the mortgage payment (sub-prime Option ARM). She suggested she'll simply pack up and go when the time comes because "everyone else seems to be doing it." Although it's a sample size of 1, I think this is reflective of an enormous shift in people's attitudes toward foreclosure. The stigma is gone.

Therefore, September - October 2008 might be a good time to start looking for opportunities. Cash will be king.

 

[30A Skunkape]

Re: Calling the bottom!

I wonder how long the ARM mess will linger. The foreclosure I am most familiar with (no, I am not being foreclosed upon) has an ARM that adjusts in 2012...well, it would have adjusted, anyway. I have no idea how common this flavor of mortgage was, but I guess it is possible that somebody might be able to scrape by for a few years then get whacked with an adjustment.

 

[30A Skunkape]

Re: Calling the bottom!

So can we count on an increasing number of ARM adjustments in the near future for the SOWAL jumbos?

 

[SHELLY]

Re: Calling the bottom!

If you believe that the current turmoil in the real estate market was caused by speculation fueled by lax lending standards, then you could conclude that the bottom will come as a result of the unwinding of these mortgages.

See the attached article...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/03/03/ccview103.xml

Here's my logic for how this relates to Walton County,

Assume this trend is similar for Florida mortgages. If peak adjustment period is March, and foreclosure proceedings start 120-150 days delinquent (depends on the mortgage agreement - could be sooner), these Option ARM's will be pinching homeowners in the June - July timeframe.

But summer rental income may afford these homeowners some time. Once the peak rental months end, the homeowners will simply walk away.

As a side note, I crossed paths with an old acquaintance yesterday and she shared with me that she was inches away from losing her home because she couldn't afford the mortgage payment (sub-prime Option ARM). She suggested she'll simply pack up and go when the time comes because "everyone else seems to be doing it." Although it's a sample size of 1, I think this is reflective of an enormous shift in people's attitudes toward foreclosure. The stigma is gone.

Therefore, September - October 2008 might be a good time to start looking for opportunities. Cash will be king.

Another monkey wrench was thrown into the system today with Fanny & Freddie essentially ending the era of "The Drive-By Appraisal."

"Seeking to head off the threat of lawsuits from Mr. Cuomo, the two government-sponsored providers of funding for mortgage loans agreed to a code of conduct due to take effect next Jan. 1. Because Fannie and Freddie are the dominant sources of funds for home loans, the code will become an effective standard for the industry.

The code bars lenders and their representatives from pressuring appraisers to supply inflated estimates of property values, which are widely viewed as an important contributor to the mortgage crisis. Appraisers have long complained that they risked losing business if they didn't appraise homes at values that would allow loans to be made.

Bank employees who are involved in making loans won't be allowed to choose appraisers. And lenders won't be able to make loans on the basis of appraisals from their own employees or from other companies they control.

The code also bars lenders from using appraisals ordered by mortgage brokers. The National Association of Mortgage Brokers said that rule could drive many brokers out of business. Officials of the trade group said appraisals ordered by brokers sometimes can be used for more than one potential lender, giving the consumer more flexibility. Under the new code, they said, consumers who use brokers might end up paying for two appraisals. Mr. Cuomo said he didn't believe the code would hurt brokers who follow "legitimate" practices.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120456185094007821.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

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One surely might want to start "looking" after hurricane season, but it would be better to hold off on 'buying' until after a more honest appraisal system is put in place.

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[flyguy]

The bottom has arrived

Well it must be the official bottom because I just bought in.

PCB beachfront on a low floor (and I mean on the beach). Built in 2004/2005. About 1500 square feet finished out high end.

I predict nothing but up from this point forward.

Joking aside while I hope it is the bottom, I made the age old mistake of falling in love with a place and bought sooner than I planned.

Maybe still some downside but I am in. Its all about the view at happy hour!

Good luck to all,
Flyguy