Calling The Bottom

Re: The bottom has arrived

If I had to pick which place to put my money, the market or real estate, I would of course pick real estate. Having said that, it would not be on the beach and it sure would not be a condo.

We will see shortages in food within the next couple of years. If you have money then you may want to think about making your home solar efficient and having a place to grow vegetables and raise your own meat.

This economy is going to tank and we are in my opinion not even close to seeing the bottom. But then I am not that smart, I am sure you probably know more than me when it comes to these sorts of things.

Re: The bottom has arrived

So they have the "pendings $" but they don't have the "closings $?" That's really odd ...or maybe they just don't want that stuff known.

If they do, like Oct '07 Pending was $45.5 million...and Oct '07 Closing was $40 million, I can do the percentage math for them.

BTW, thanks for the numbers.



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That is not at all what I meant. What we don't currently have the ability to do is to know the quantity and $ value, and percentage of pendings which are converted into close, and the length of time it takes them to close, vs, the pendings which don't close, for whatever reason. You can track an individual listing to see if it goes pending, then is back on the market by the same seller, or if it actually closes. To my knowledge, we don't have a way of doing that on more than one property at a time.

By simply looking at the closed sales, and knowing the length of time it takes to close a property, you might have an idea of what percentage go to closing, but with new pendings coming on, and the pendings and closings occurring on a continual daily basis, the numbers might be better if you had a 90 day moving average. For example, a property going pending on Mar 29, might not close in April, and might carry over to May, but if you are counting on all Mar pendings closing in April, your numbers will be off.

Re: The bottom has arrived

We will see shortages in food within the next couple of years. If you have money then you may want to think about making your home solar efficient and having a place to grow vegetables and raise your own meat.

So you will be needing to buy some farmland? You might want to try the better soils in lower AL and GA, but watch out for the drought and price of diesel fuel.

Re: The bottom has arrived

So you will be needing to buy some farmland? You might want to try the better soils in lower AL and GA, but watch out for the drought and price of diesel fuel.

Now is a great time to buy farmland!

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Re: The bottom has arrived

That is not at all what I meant. What we don't currently have the ability to do is to know the quantity and $ value, and percentage of pendings which are converted into close, and the length of time it takes them to close, vs, the pendings which don't close, for whatever reason. You can track an individual listing to see if it goes pending, then is back on the market by the same seller, or if it actually closes. To my knowledge, we don't have a way of doing that on more than one property at a time.

By simply looking at the closed sales, and knowing the length of time it takes to close a property, you might have an idea of what percentage go to closing, but with new pendings coming on, and the pendings and closings occurring on a continual daily basis, the numbers might be better if you had a 90 day moving average. For example, a property going pending on Mar 29, might not close in April, and might carry over to May, but if you are counting on all Mar pendings closing in April, your numbers will be off.

All good points, thanks again Joe.

So from what I gather, the statistics and numbers they're using to report pendings and sales are essentially useless if one is attempting to size up the market. Coincidence? :shock:

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Re: The bottom has arrived

All good points, thanks again Joe.

So from what I gather, the statistics and numbers they're using to report pendings and sales are essentially useless if one is attempting to size up the market. Coincidence? :shock:

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If I correctly understand your question, I'd say no, the numbers are not useless for sizing up the market. The closed sales numbers are very helpful. I would agree that you cannot do much with pending or contingent listing information, as I have noted above. That pending data is useful to see contracts being written, but I could write a contract for a property for $100,000,000 and have the buyer back out because he couldn't get the financing, so again, it doesn't show anything other than activity. If we could get more data on percentage of pendings which go to close, then we might have a better forecasting tool, for about 30 days out.

I have it on my calendar to speak with the main guy at ECAR tomorrow, to see if we can get Solid Earth to hook up ECAR with that conversion info data for Realtors to access.

Re: The bottom has arrived

As an FYI, I may start writing in my SoWal blog, a monthly update on sales summary, and possibly include excel files showing history of sales by types of category. I'm not sure how easy that will be to show the actual numbers in a historical perspective, if I cannot just post my spreadsheets, but I can provide a summary of my thoughts based on the stats which I am seeing, and report each months numbers for each person to track. I'm not sure if you can have questions and answers regarding each blog either, but it might be a good place to question numbers in the stats, to understand them better, and possibly to start discussion on whether condos are outperforming single family detached homes, or whether SoWal homes outside of 30A are outselling 30A homes, etc.

Re: The bottom has arrived

Pending Sales for Combined Residential Homes in South Walton:

2007
Sep - $48.5 million
Oct - $45.4 million
Nov - $52.6 million
Dec - $39.3 million

2008
Jan - $40.7 million
Feb - $88.8 million
Mar - $84.3 million

We must bear in mind that the time frame of contracts from inception to close has increased. So many of the contracts that were pending in Jan are still pending in Feb, these are not necessarily new pendings and many of those numbers are carried over from the previous month(s).

The reason is the "short sale" takes longer to close. Remember, around 50% of all those pendings are short sales.

It may sound like mumbo jumbo to some but it really is quite simple:

increasing short sales = declining market

I update my site every morning with increases vs decreases but I also will be updating the short sale ratio for active listings each month.

Re: The bottom has arrived

good points joe mammy

Re: The bottom has arrived

I thought when the category of "contingent" was added to the mls, it would clear this sort of thing up. "Pending" in my mind means that all contingencies, including financing have been cleared up and the only thing left is the closing.

Re: The bottom has arrived

Your mind is different than ECAR, at least in the definitions of pending and contingent. In truth, all contracts are contingent until the closing. I'll give you one extreme contingency: One party to the sales contract dies. Contingent category was created when agents wanted to continue to advertise property for back up contracts, which had specific contingencies which would be noted in the agent notes.

Following up on the earlier issue, I discussed the idea of being able to track the stats of pendings which go to close, with ECAR, this morning, and they are going to see if Solid Earth (software company) has that ability to run those stats. As I thought, that information is not currently available thru ECAR.

Re: The bottom has arrived

You are a true asset to Realtors in this area Joe!

Re: The bottom has arrived

You are a true asset to Realtors in this area Joe!

There are three consecutive posts by three different Joes. Here's to all the average joe Realtors, not all whom are named Joe and not all whom are simply average, but whom are assets to this area and the profession of Realtors!

Re: The bottom has arrived

Thanks smiling Joe for the clarification. If realtors didn't learn from one another, where would we be? Here's to a job where we both compete and cooperate at the same time.

Re: The bottom has arrived

True story,

I have a buddy who bought a few condo's when this real estate thing was going strong and put his 20% down and decided he was going to be the next Donald.

To make a long story short, he had the bank come get the keys to a million dollar house down south and has went through well over a million dollars in the last few years trying to wait this market out to change.

Well that an a few Mercedes that he had to have and a few other things like vacations and what not.

Well anyway I was talking to him last night and he was saying he felt like he should end it all and kill himself. I asked him what the heck was he thinking. Be careful in buying real estate, the days in flipping a condo are gone with the Dinosaur's.

If you buy something let it be because you want the house to live in and not to make a profit, there are much easier ways to make a buck than to flip a condo that is on this beach. If you will wait you can get some killer buys no pun intended.

Re: The bottom has arrived

So they have the "pendings $" but they don't have the "closings $?" That's really odd ...or maybe they just don't want that stuff known.

If they do, like Oct '07 Pending was $45.5 million...and Oct '07 Closing was $40 million, I can do the percentage math for them.

BTW, thanks for the numbers.



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You can get actual closings for Walton County in the Real Trend report printed every second or third Saturday in the Business section of the Walton Sun.

Re: The bottom has arrived

(Source: Emerald Coast Assoc. of Realtors)

2005
Oct - $28.2 million
Nov - $71.1 million
Dec - $19.7 million
2006
Jan - $23.1 million
Feb - $25.7 million
Mar - $28.0 million
**************

2006
Oct - $43.5 million
Nov - $39.5 million
Dec - $28.8 million
2007
Jan - $48.6 million
Feb - $66.2 million
Mar - $110.3 million
***************

2007
Oct - $45.4 million
Nov - $52.6 million
Dec - $39.3 million
2008
Jan - $40.7 million
Feb - $88.8 million
Mar - $84.3 million

Again, I post the numbers only to show an increase in activity during the last couple of months. This in no way indicates where we are on the curve.

I apologize that the numbers aren't side by side. I tried, but it screwed up and combined them.

Thanks for the info.

Re: The bottom has arrived

Thats how I feel. I waited until I got a great deal on exactly what I wanted. There may well be more downside but I did not want to miss the boat on this buying opportunity. And what a view!

Flyguy

Hi Flyguy - Gin N Tonic on the deck overlooking the ocean at sunset? I have just separated from the Mr. and seriously think you could use a roommate to help share the expense of all those limes! Always thinking of others.....

Re: The bottom has arrived

a little insider data for you non-Realtors. In all of South Walton, including Miramar Bch, the pending sales for the last three months are as follows, for Residential Homes, Townhomes, and Condos, combined. Keep in mind that pending sales are simply listings which are under sales contracts. That doesn't necessarily mean that they will close. They may not. The only reason for me posting this data which is collected from Emerald Coast Assoc. of Realtors, is to show the increase in activity which has been buzzing lately. The data shows :

Pending Sales for Combined Residential Homes in South Walton:

2007
Sep - $48.5 million
Oct - $45.4 million
Nov - $52.6 million
Dec - $39.3 million

2008
Jan - $40.7 million
Feb - $88.8 million
Mar - $84.3 million

From the March Real Trend report in the Walton Sun today.

SFH homes sales unit volume down 9% year to date and dollar volume down 2% (average price up slightly year over year).

Condo sales unit volume down 70% and dollar volume down 76% (average price down slightly)

Lots sales volume down 23% and dollar volume down 7% (average price up)

Looks like unit sales continue to fall in all categories despite the increase in acitivity that the realtors are seeing, but prices seem to be stabilizing.

Re: The bottom has arrived

If you look only at the big picture, yes, volume is down year to date over 2007. However, if you break it down into areas, you will see that some places are seeing increases in quantity of sales compared to 2007. Real Trend doesn't show you those numbers.

One example - in South Walton, in the area from Mack Bayou thru Inlet Beach, quantity of Single Family Detached home sales are up 28% nver 2007, through the end of March, with 2007 having 71 sales and 2008 having 91 sales.

The Real Trend report is a good overall statistic, but by breaking up the sales into specific areas, you will see that there are hot spots for sales, as shown above. Remember that if there are hot spots which increase the overall average, there are also cold spots, which are under-performing when comparing 2008 to 2007.

Re: The bottom has arrived

When I was a little kid, I would watch Batman and Robin. Boy did I love that show, I got my own batman sticker to put on my chest, does anyone remember doing that? Anyway, I would watch the show and see how they could parachute down off a bldg. and all, so I decided to give it a try.

I got one of my mom's sheets and went to the back yard and climbed up one of these Austrian Pine trees. I figure if Batman could do it so could I.

I remember someone telling me you had to be up high enough so that your parachute would open so up that tree I went. I know what your thinking, but listen no one ever told me as a child that I was going to grow up and be an Astronaut.

Anyway I get up where I can see the top of my house and decided I was high enough for my parachute to open and let go a big yell and jumped. Boy was that fun, that is until I hit the bottom. I was down on the ground rolling around like a fish out of water trying to catch my breath. The thing is, some times hitting the bottom hurts but needless to say there is always a lesson learned.

I put away my old parachute that day and have not used it since. Yep, it felt good going high up in that tree but hitting the bottom sure did hurt.

Re: The bottom has arrived

When I was a little kid, I would watch Batman and Robin. Boy did I love that show, I got my own batman sticker to put on my chest, does anyone remember doing that? Anyway, I would watch the show and see how they could parachute down off a bldg. and all, so I decided to give it a try.

I got one of my mom's sheets and went to the back yard and climbed up one of these Austrian Pine trees. I figure if Batman could do it so could I.

I remember someone telling me you had to be up high enough so that your parachute would open so up that tree I went. I know what your thinking, but listen no one ever told me as a child that I was going to grow up and be an Astronaut.

Anyway I get up where I can see the top of my house and decided I was high enough for my parachute to open and let go a big yell and jumped. Boy was that fun, that is until I hit the bottom. I was down on the ground rolling around like a fish out of water trying to catch my breath. The thing is, some times hitting the bottom hurts but needless to say there is always a lesson learned.

I put away my old parachute that day and have not used it since. Yep, it felt good going high up in that tree but hitting that bottom sure did hurt.

That can be one analogy of what 'the bottom' will feel like, here's mine:

YouTube - Wile E. Coyote vs Road Runner


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Re: The bottom has arrived

That can be one analogy of what 'the bottom' will feel like, here's mine:

http://youtube.com/watch?v=hz65AOjabtM&feature=related


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I can't top that one. Thank you for putting a smile on my face. And yes that is when we will know that we have hit the bottom.

Re: The bottom has arrived

That can be one analogy of what 'the bottom' will feel like, here's mine:

http://youtube.com/watch?v=hz65AOjabtM&feature=related


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I'm glad you posted this: I haven't seen the RR in years!

I have no relevant comment on Real Estate, but you guys are an endless supply of useful information.

Re: The bottom has arrived

Hi Flyguy - Gin N Tonic on the deck overlooking the ocean at sunset? I have just separated from the Mr. and seriously think you could use a roommate to help share the expense of all those limes! Always thinking of others.....[/quote]

A gracious offer but Mrs. Flyguy (shown here) keeps me stocked in limes.

Flyguy