Calling The Bottom
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Re: Calling the bottom!
It looks to me that 2008 won't be the year that we hit the bottom,but when the bottom truly drops out of the market.
Just check out some of these stats:
Sowal in this example equals south of 98 along 30-a and the lovely neighborhood of Point Washington.
Sowal
# of homes,condos,and townhomes for sale = 1,645
# of homes,condos,and townhomes sold in 2007= 415
At this rate, it will take 3.9 years to sell what is currently advertised in the mls.
#of residential lots for sale=1200
# of lots sold in 2007= 180
At this rate, it will take 6.7 years to sell the lots in mls.
In a traditional real estate market, a healthy inventory is about a 5% vacancy rate with a turnover every 6 months.
Walton County stats:
What about foreclosures?
Last year there were 721 foreclosures in Walton county. The first step to foreclosure is a lis pendens filed with the Clerk of Court.
In January of 2006, there were 20 lis pendens filed.
In January of 2007, there were 47 lis pendens filed.
January of 2008? 147 lis pendens were filed.
If the market keeps up like this, it appears Walton County will be headed towards a record 1800 foreclosures this year.
I get tired of people blaming the poor subprime borrowers for the mortgage mess. What do the upcoming foreclosures look like?
Remember, a lis pendens is a form that can be filed by a contractor,bank, of homeowner's association when a property owner has fallen behind on the payments.
Here is a snapshot of some of the properties that have entered this first stage of foreclosure in just the month of January 2008:
1 Sandprints condo
2 Windswept
1 Ariel dunes condo
1 bay club of Sandestin
1 Dunes of Seagrove
1 Frangista Beach townhome
13 lots in Old Seagrove
2 Beach side Villas Condo
1 Rosemary Beach
2 Grayton Cove
1 Majestic Sun
1 Botany Bayou
1 Gulf Pines
1 Preserve at Grayton
1 Lakeside at Blue Mountain
1 Magnolia cottages by the sea
1 old house in Seacrest
3 at Watercolor
1 at Edgewater beach
1 lot at Beach Highlands
2 at Summer's Edge
1 at Hammock Bay
2 at Maravilla Condo
1 at Emerald Hill
2 at Watersound
1 at Forest lakes
2 at Surfside Condo
1 at Preserve Place
1 at Adagio
1 at Magnolia Cottage
1 at Topsail Village
1 at Preserve at Grayton Beach
1 at Gulf View Heights
1 at Old Florida Village
1 at Cypress Dunes
1 at Luau in Sandestin
1 at Gulf Trace
1 at Magnolia Dune
1 at Melodia
1 at Hachee shores
1 at Cerulean Place (watercolor?)
1 at cypress breeze
These people are not subprime borrowers, they are people who have given up on there investments. If you went through the records like I did you might be shocked how many people you might know who are walking away.
Want to know what your property is worth?
Try finding comparables for your property from the year 2000 and add a modest 3% for each year to obtain a good asking price for your property but be prepared to compete with the HUGE inventory out there owned by banks and distressed and over extended buyers.
By the way, I am a licensed realtor in the State of Florida. "Now is a great time to buy!" Please excuse the typos
It looks to me that 2008 won't be the year that we hit the bottom,but when the bottom truly drops out of the market.
Just check out some of these stats:
Sowal in this example equals south of 98 along 30-a and the lovely neighborhood of Point Washington.
Sowal
# of homes,condos,and townhomes for sale = 1,645
# of homes,condos,and townhomes sold in 2007= 415
At this rate, it will take 3.9 years to sell what is currently advertised in the mls.
#of residential lots for sale=1200
# of lots sold in 2007= 180
At this rate, it will take 6.7 years to sell the lots in mls.
In a traditional real estate market, a healthy inventory is about a 5% vacancy rate with a turnover every 6 months.
Walton County stats:
What about foreclosures?
Last year there were 721 foreclosures in Walton county. The first step to foreclosure is a lis pendens filed with the Clerk of Court.
In January of 2006, there were 20 lis pendens filed.
In January of 2007, there were 47 lis pendens filed.
January of 2008? 147 lis pendens were filed.
If the market keeps up like this, it appears Walton County will be headed towards a record 1800 foreclosures this year.
I get tired of people blaming the poor subprime borrowers for the mortgage mess. What do the upcoming foreclosures look like?
Remember, a lis pendens is a form that can be filed by a contractor,bank, of homeowner's association when a property owner has fallen behind on the payments.
Here is a snapshot of some of the properties that have entered this first stage of foreclosure in just the month of January 2008:
1 Sandprints condo
2 Windswept
1 Ariel dunes condo
1 bay club of Sandestin
1 Dunes of Seagrove
1 Frangista Beach townhome
13 lots in Old Seagrove
2 Beach side Villas Condo
1 Rosemary Beach
2 Grayton Cove
1 Majestic Sun
1 Botany Bayou
1 Gulf Pines
1 Preserve at Grayton
1 Lakeside at Blue Mountain
1 Magnolia cottages by the sea
1 old house in Seacrest
3 at Watercolor
1 at Edgewater beach
1 lot at Beach Highlands
2 at Summer's Edge
1 at Hammock Bay
2 at Maravilla Condo
1 at Emerald Hill
2 at Watersound
1 at Forest lakes
2 at Surfside Condo
1 at Preserve Place
1 at Adagio
1 at Magnolia Cottage
1 at Topsail Village
1 at Preserve at Grayton Beach
1 at Gulf View Heights
1 at Old Florida Village
1 at Cypress Dunes
1 at Luau in Sandestin
1 at Gulf Trace
1 at Magnolia Dune
1 at Melodia
1 at Hachee shores
1 at Cerulean Place (watercolor?)
1 at cypress breeze
These people are not subprime borrowers, they are people who have given up on there investments. If you went through the records like I did you might be shocked how many people you might know who are walking away.
Want to know what your property is worth?
Try finding comparables for your property from the year 2000 and add a modest 3% for each year to obtain a good asking price for your property but be prepared to compete with the HUGE inventory out there owned by banks and distressed and over extended buyers.
By the way, I am a licensed realtor in the State of Florida. "Now is a great time to buy!" Please excuse the typos
Re: Calling the bottom!
Thanks for the info Joe.
You're a licensed realtor and saying "Now is a great time to buy."
Would you be so bold as to share your "buyer's catch phrases" for each of the years 2004, 2005 and 2006?
.
By the way, I am a licensed realtor in the State of Florida. "Now is a great time to buy!" Please excuse the typos
Thanks for the info Joe.
You're a licensed realtor and saying "Now is a great time to buy."
Would you be so bold as to share your "buyer's catch phrases" for each of the years 2004, 2005 and 2006?
.
Re: Calling the bottom!
I added that famous National Association of Realtors catchphrase in for a bit of humor. If you knew me you would know I'm not too keen on the NAR cool-aid.
Thanks for the info Joe.
You're a licensed realtor and saying "Now is a great time to buy."
Would you be so bold as to share your "buyer's catch phrases" for each of the years 2004, 2005 and 2006?
.
I added that famous National Association of Realtors catchphrase in for a bit of humor. If you knew me you would know I'm not too keen on the NAR cool-aid.
Re: Calling the bottom!
I'm an eternal optimist but sometimes the news is just so damn depressing.
In announcing Project Lifeline today, a question was posed to Treasury Secretary Paulson, "Is the worst over?"
His response, "The worst is just beginning."
He was specifically referring to subprime mortgage resets. Read the whole thing here http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/523f5bf0-d9a6-11dc-bd4d-0000779fd2ac.html
I'm an eternal optimist but sometimes the news is just so damn depressing.
In announcing Project Lifeline today, a question was posed to Treasury Secretary Paulson, "Is the worst over?"
His response, "The worst is just beginning."
He was specifically referring to subprime mortgage resets. Read the whole thing here http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/523f5bf0-d9a6-11dc-bd4d-0000779fd2ac.html
Re: Calling the bottom!
You mean you didn't believe this gem?
------------------------------------------------
January 10, 2007 - After bottoming in the fourth quarter of 2006, existing-home sales are forecast to gradually rise through 2007 and into 2008, while new-home sales should turnaround by summer, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors.
David Lereah, NAR's chief economist, said annual totals for existing-home sales will be fairly comparable between 2006 and 2007. "We have to keep in mind that we were still in boom conditions during the first quarter of 2006 with a high sales volume and double-digit price appreciation," he said. "We are starting 2007 from a relatively low point, so even with a gradual improvement in sales it'll be pretty much of a wash in terms of annual totals. The good news is that the steady improvement in sales will support price appreciation moving forward."
-----------------------------------------------
or this one?
------------------------------------------------
May 8, 2007 -“If it weren’t for a favorable economic backdrop, housing would probably have a hard landing,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR senior economist, in a statement. “As it is, we see this as a soft landing with home sales rising gradually in the second half of the year and prices recovering a bit later.”
------------------------------------------------
How can you call yourself a Realtor???
.
You mean you didn't believe this gem?
------------------------------------------------
January 10, 2007 - After bottoming in the fourth quarter of 2006, existing-home sales are forecast to gradually rise through 2007 and into 2008, while new-home sales should turnaround by summer, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors.
David Lereah, NAR's chief economist, said annual totals for existing-home sales will be fairly comparable between 2006 and 2007. "We have to keep in mind that we were still in boom conditions during the first quarter of 2006 with a high sales volume and double-digit price appreciation," he said. "We are starting 2007 from a relatively low point, so even with a gradual improvement in sales it'll be pretty much of a wash in terms of annual totals. The good news is that the steady improvement in sales will support price appreciation moving forward."
-----------------------------------------------
or this one?
------------------------------------------------
May 8, 2007 -“If it weren’t for a favorable economic backdrop, housing would probably have a hard landing,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR senior economist, in a statement. “As it is, we see this as a soft landing with home sales rising gradually in the second half of the year and prices recovering a bit later.”
------------------------------------------------
How can you call yourself a Realtor???
.
Re: Calling the bottom!
Shel,
I thought even you could understand that one can be a member of a group and not exactly follow the party line.
Shel,
I thought even you could understand that one can be a member of a group and not exactly follow the party line.
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Re: Calling the bottom!
Is it kinda like being Dr.Bennell pretending to be a 'Pod Person' in Invasion of the Body Snatchers? :shock:
.
Shel,
I thought even you could understand that one can be a member of a group and not exactly follow the party line.
Is it kinda like being Dr.Bennell pretending to be a 'Pod Person' in Invasion of the Body Snatchers? :shock:
.
Re: Calling the bottom!
