Calling The Bottom

Re: The bottom has arrived

Perhaps there are more than one bottom. Read all the stories about trends and inventory and this isn't the bottom. Bobby J, perhaps you can bring some wisdom to this. I will go out on a limb and say there are at least two bottoms. One is the real bottom when every day people will be able to do a move up or first home again. The other is a more fortunate group who have more at their disposal who have been watching the market droop and it is getting to the point that the property they have been watching are getting to the prices they just can't pass up.
Maybe we call the bottoms "investment" and "The Every Day Joe".
I am Grasshopper sitting at your feet...

Re: The bottom has arrived

flyguy you seem like a cool guy, but isn't this about the 2nd or 3rd bottom post you've called?

Re: The bottom has arrived

flyguy you seem like a cool guy, but isn't this about the 2nd or 3rd bottom post you've called?

he's fixated on bottoms....

Re: The bottom has arrived

I think the bottom will be here when the slope begins to change

Re: The bottom has arrived

I think the bottom will be here when the slope begins to change

That was my understanding of how a curve works.

Re: The bottom has arrived

I think we're skidding at the bottom and might be for a while yet before the curve moves upward.

Re: The bottom has arrived

I knew a man who thought he had hit the very bottom, then bam he found out there was a root cellar.

Re: The bottom has arrived

Well it must be the official bottom because I just bought in.

PCB beachfront on a low floor (and I mean on the beach). Built in 2004/2005. About 1500 square feet finished out high end.

I predict nothing but up from this point forward.

Joking aside while I hope it is the bottom, I made the age old mistake of falling in love with a place and bought sooner than I planned.

Maybe still some downside but I am in. Its all about the view at happy hour!

Good luck to all,
Flyguy

I'm not sure about the bottom but I remember talking several years ago to one of the partners of what was the largest rental management company in the area about his holdings. He owned 1st floor units in several projects that they helped market and manage. I vividly remember him talking about how well they rented because of the easy access for children. Good luck with it and I'm betting its a pretty sound investment whether its the acutal bottom or not.

Re: The bottom has arrived

I think the bottom can not really be clear. Markets are so local in nature. We may be close here but Rockford, IL. may have a long way to go. I do know one fact. We are as busy as we have been in 2 years. Is this the bottom? Not sure, but it sure feels active. I think many economist have miscalculated how fast these foreclosures and short sales would leave the market place. Predicting the bottom is as dangerous as speculating. That's how we got in this mess!

Re: The bottom has arrived

Good graph Skunkape. That tells a local tale.

Re: The bottom has arrived

As of today in S. Walton East and West and South SRB we have 1447 active single family home listings, of those there are 83 short sales or roughly 6%. If you go through the pendings or under contract with contingencies you'll find over 50% are short sales. Why? Because they are supposedly market value. Search any subdivision for active listings and 9 times out of 10 the lowest priced properties are disclosed as short sales. They are priced low to attract offers of which most times the bank will counter.

Keep an eye on these numbers to find your bottom. When we see a decline in short sales either because the properties have been foreclosed or sold then I believe we have found bottom. As long as the number of short sales is on the rise then the market will continue to fall. Hmmmm, rising short sales = declining market, I like it.

According to Forbes recent article "Fire Sale" the banks are finally wising up and moving at a much more effective pace in dealing with short sales and are getting them executed and closed much faster:
http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2008/0407/040.html

I'm working on a new article that will go well in-depth here.

Re: The bottom has arrived

As of today in S. Walton East and West and South SRB we have 1447 active single family home listings, of those there are 83 short sales or roughly 6%. If you go through the pendings or under contract with contingencies you'll find over 50% are short sales. Why? Because they are supposedly market value. Search any subdivision for active listings and 9 times out of 10 the lowest priced properties are disclosed as short sales. They are priced low to attract offers of which most times the bank will counter.

Keep an eye on these numbers to find your bottom. When we see a decline in short sales either because the properties have been foreclosed or sold then I believe we have found bottom. As long as the number of short sales is on the rise then the market will continue to fall. Hmmmm, rising short sales = declining market, I like it.

According to Forbes recent article "Fire Sale" the banks are finally wising up and moving at a much more effective pace in dealing with short sales and are getting them executed and closed much faster:
http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2008/0407/040.html

I'm working on a new article that will go well in-depth here.

Joe...explain why is this time different than these?


Sep 2005: "If you are thinking about moving to Destin you may never find a more affordable time to fulfill your dreams."

Oct 2005: "As the temperatures drop the real estate market is finding it's way back up. Now is the time to take advantage of the soft market and get those offers in! "

Jan 2006: "Condos and single family homes have been reduced back to realistic prices after astronomic appreciation. If you have ever entertained the idea of buying property in the Emerald Coast you will probably never find a better time to make an offer. "

Mar 2006: "Everyday we get closer to finding the bottom and when we do the appreciation process will rev back up. There has not been a better time to be shopping for Destin property in the last three years."

Apr 2006: "Where is the bottom? That is the million dollar question - literally. I was talking with a broker who has lived and worked in Destin for many years. He said this is the best buyer's market he's seen since 1986! But noone can time the market perfectly, if you wait too long you may miss an opportunity."

Jun 2006: "If you have had your eyes on owning a home in Destin you may never find a better time than the present."

Re: The bottom has arrived

OOOH! OOOH! OOOH! Pick me! I know!

He has to because this is his livelyhood.
Nice work picking out all those quotes.
Ouch!

Re: The bottom has arrived

flyguy you seem like a cool guy, but isn't this about the 2nd or 3rd bottom post you've called?

Not cool, just like to get buzzed at sunset on gin and tonic. Never called a bottom before, but I sure will be looking at a few from my new condo.

Now don't get the wrong idea gayboi, not that there is anything wrong with it.

Flyguy

Re: The bottom has arrived

Not cool, just like to get buzzed at sunset on gin and tonic. Never called a bottom before, but I sure will be looking at a few from my new condo.

Now don't get the wrong idea gayboi, not that there is anything wrong with it.

Flyguy

Have another drinky............

Re: The bottom has arrived

Joe...explain why is this time different than these?

Shelley-
I respect your posts and find your musings humorous and poignant.

I'm trying to find new market indicators. Short sales are prevalent like never before (at least in my tenor).

My short sale ratio theory at least inspired you to read (possibly reread)my last 22 market pulses - or not.

"As long as the number of short sales is on the rise then the market will continue to fall. Hmmmm, rising short sales = declining market"

I was hoping for you to tear into the theory, not my previous optimistic outlooks for Destin...of which I am still very bullish.

Thanks for the feedback.

Re: The bottom has arrived

Shelley-
I respect your posts and find your musings humorous and poignant.

I'm trying to find new market indicators. Short sales are prevalent like never before (at least in my tenor).

My short sale ratio theory at least inspired you to read (possibly reread)my last 22 market pulses - or not.

"As long as the number of short sales is on the rise then the market will continue to fall. Hmmmm, rising short sales = declining market"

I was hoping for you to tear into the theory, not my previous optimistic outlooks for Destin...of which I am still very bullish.

Thanks for the feedback.

Joe...I like ya--not like 'like-like,' but just like "like." I told you before that I think you've got a great website and I do read your "market pulses."

In many of your more current "market pulses," when you've come to the realization that the RE bubble had indeed popped (although I know you can't admit it outright lest you be tied to a "For Sale" sign and beaten senseless by balloon-wielding REALTOR? brethren) you stated "Keep an eye on the Destin Seller's Sentiment and when you start seeing green you'll know we've hit bottom and are on our way back up." THAT makes a helluvalot more sense than the "Ding Ding Ding I hear a bottom" or the "∑ Short Sale + Rising Sales ≈50% √Declining prices" mumbo jumbo.

I'll bet you're among the few good <in my opinion> REALTORS? in this area because you realize that if you can't stand up to the scrutiny I'm dishing out and answering the hard-hitting, skeptical comments, you're doomed to fail in this newly developing market. The majority of the current crop of buyers aren't going to be sucked in by razzle-dazzle smoke-and-mirror presentations and worn-out NAR catchphrases. Today's buyers have got hard money to put down and solid credit backing them up...there's a reason for that (I think you know the answer).

Just my 2?...it's worth what you paid for it.




Shel.

Re: The bottom has arrived

Joe...explain why is this time different than these?


Sep 2005: "If you are thinking about moving to Destin you may never find a more affordable time to fulfill your dreams."

Oct 2005: "As the temperatures drop the real estate market is finding it's way back up. Now is the time to take advantage of the soft market and get those offers in! "

Jan 2006: "Condos and single family homes have been reduced back to realistic prices after astronomic appreciation. If you have ever entertained the idea of buying property in the Emerald Coast you will probably never find a better time to make an offer. "

Mar 2006: "Everyday we get closer to finding the bottom and when we do the appreciation process will rev back up. There has not been a better time to be shopping for Destin property in the last three years."

Apr 2006: "Where is the bottom? That is the million dollar question - literally. I was talking with a broker who has lived and worked in Destin for many years. He said this is the best buyer's market he's seen since 1986! But noone can time the market perfectly, if you wait too long you may miss an opportunity."

Jun 2006: "If you have had your eyes on owning a home in Destin you may never find a better time than the present."

I cringed, for Mr. Mammy seems to be credible and honest, not simply cheerleading as many do. I am impressed with his professionalism. (I do not know the man)

Shelley-
I respect your posts and find your musings humorous and poignant.

I'm trying to find new market indicators. Short sales are prevalent like never before (at least in my tenor).

My short sale ratio theory at least inspired you to read (possibly reread)my last 22 market pulses - or not.

"As long as the number of short sales is on the rise then the market will continue to fall. Hmmmm, rising short sales = declining market"

I was hoping for you to tear into the theory, not my previous optimistic outlooks for Destin...of which I am still very bullish.

Thanks for the feedback.

Superb response. I should learn how to interact as an educated, mannered adult from the example of this post.

Joe...I like ya--not like 'like-like,' but just like "like." I told you before that I think you've got a great website and I do read your "market pulses."

In many of your more current "market pulses," when you've come to the realization that the RE bubble had indeed popped (although I know you can't admit it outright lest you be tied to a "For Sale" sign and beaten senseless by balloon-wielding REALTOR? brethren) you stated "Keep an eye on the Destin Seller's Sentiment and when you start seeing green you'll know we've hit bottom and are on our way back up." THAT makes a helluvalot more sense than the "Ding Ding Ding I hear a bottom" or the "∑ Short Sale + Rising Sales ≈50% √Declining prices" mumbo jumbo.

I'll bet you're among the few good <in my opinion> REALTORS? in this area because you realize that if you can't stand up to the scrutiny I'm dishing out and answering the hard-hitting, skeptical comments, you're doomed to fail in this newly developing market. The majority of the current crop of buyers aren't going to be sucked in by razzle-dazzle smoke-and-mirror presentations and worn-out NAR catchphrases. Today's buyers have got hard money to put down and solid credit backing them up...there's a reason for that (I think you know the answer).

Just my 2?...it's worth what you paid for it.




Shel.

Excellent as well. This shows the poster to be a fair minded individual not all "gloom and doom". Repped both.

Re: The bottom has arrived

Well, if I were giving advice to any Realtor it would be not to buy that big boat just yet. We have a while to go before we hit bottom and before it is over, many will know what it is like to go to Walmart and see some of the shelves empty.

Right now the Fed is trying to save the big boys in the Market, but the common man is being thrown out in the snow. This Country is headed in the direction of a Third World Country. Do I hope I am right? No, I would love nothing better than to have egg on my face when this thing shows how ugly it is going to get.

It could take years for this thing to turn around and even then it will never go back to the way it was a few years ago. But then what do I know.

Re: The bottom has arrived

Well, if I were giving advice to any Realtor it would be not to buy that big boat just yet. We have a while to go before we hit bottom and before it is over, many will know what it is like to go to Walmart and see some of the shelves empty.

It's going to be tough going for a while, but it's going to be even worse for the people who insist on sticking their fingers in their ears and singing "La-la-la-la."

Three cases in point hot off the presses:

Asian Inflation Begins to Sting U.S. Shoppers
The free ride for American consumers is ending. For two generations, Americans have imported goods produced ever more cheaply from a succession of low-wage countries — first Japan and Korea, then China, and now increasingly places like Vietnam and India.
Developing countries have had bouts of inflation before. Indeed, some are famous for them, like Brazil, which experienced triple-digit inflation in the late 1980s and early 1990s. But two things make this time different, and together promise to send prices higher at Wal-Mart and supermarkets alike in the United States, just as the possibility of recession looms.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/08/b...=business&oref=slogin&oref=slogin&oref=slogin

Credit crunch losses will top $945-billion: IMF
The International Monetary Fund is pegging the losses related to the global financial crisis at a minimum of $945-billion (U.S.), far surpassing the costs associated with the Asian financial crisis and the U.S. savings and loans crisis that marked previous decades.

In one of its most pessimistic reports on the credit crunch to date, the IMF said Tuesday that financial stability has deteriorated significantly, and warned that the side-effects of the credit problems will be harsh.

“What began as a fairly contained deterioration in portions of the U.S. subprime market has metastasized into severe dislocations in broader credit and funding markets that now pose risks to the macroeconomic outlook in the United States and globally,” the report states.

“It is now clear that the current turmoil is more than simply a liquidity event, reflecting deep-seated balance sheet fragilities and weak capital bases, which means its effects are likely to be broader, deeper, and more protracted,” the Fund says in its Global Financial Stability Report, released Tuesday morning.
http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080408.wimf0409/BNStory/robNews/home

Energy Department says gas prices could peak at $4 a gallon this spring, curbing demand
NEW YORK - Retail gas prices could climb as high as $4 a gallon this summer, but prices at such lofty levels will make many Americans think twice about hitting the road this summer, the Energy Department said Tuesday.
"It is important to note ... that even if the national average monthly gasoline price peaks around $3.60 per gallon this summer, it is possible that prices at some point will cross the $4 per gallon threshold," the EIA said.
http://www.startribune.com/business/17383324.html



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It will be better to prepare for the worst than not be ready at all.

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Re: The bottom has arrived

Wow! Well mannered discourse, people being polite? I believe we have hit the bottom of rudeness!

Seriously, no offense to flyguy or joemammy was intended.

flyguy, good luck on your investment I hope you purchased at the bottom of the market.

joemammy, good articles and research. I respect anyone who is doing research and still working in this market as opposed to those that are selling cell phones or posting blogs.

Re: The bottom has arrived

I believe what we are seeing is the National Debt coming to call. The symptoms we are seeing are what the national debt consequences look like in real life. Optimistic mindsets can only push back the consequences so many times. I don't see how or when we have ever done anything real and lasting as a country to counter what debt we have piling up. I used to wonder what it would look like when our savers and the rest of the world stopped buying our debt paper. Either America needs to invent something tangible to sell and then use profits to pay down debt or we can all reach into our pockets at the same time and pay off at least a chunk of the natiional debt. I don't see either of those things happening any time soon. Until then those that buy debt are playing hot potato.
I am unedjucated in macro economics. I have to strip things down to basics and superimpose onto a macro level. Does anyone out there have a better wisdom base who can point out an example of something macro-economicly that we have ever done to affect the national debt?

Re: The bottom has arrived

Regardless of the type of information needing to be shared to make this thread productive, anybody having this information will be able to make more informed decisions in the future. Please keep up the dialogue. There are probably a lot of lurkers really appreciating this thread.

Re: The bottom has arrived

Thats how I feel. I waited until I got a great deal on exactly what I wanted. There may well be more downside but I did not want to miss the boat on this buying opportunity. And what a view!

Flyguy

Re: The bottom has arrived

I really was kidding about calling the bottom. I couldn't call it nor can anyone else till well after the fact. I do think the downside potential on the beach is greatly reduced at this point.

Time to buy real estate? Only if it is affordable to you and part of a balanced portfolio. You can't time the market wether it is stocks, real estate, or corn futures. I own real estate but relative to my overall portfolio it is not overweighted. Whatever your worth, spread it among various asset classes and don't speculate.

I also own gold and other commodities just in case the doomsday folks are right (or partially right as they have been). But lets face it, if we do have the great financial meltdown and the end of civil discourse as we know it, all asset classes will tube.

I don't try to hit financial homeruns, I diversify and hit singles. And I try to enjoy it along the way.


If we are watching the end of the world as we know it, at least I have a nice view.
JMHO,
Flyguy