Calling The Bottom

Back after attending to some other business. I see my thread is finally on its death bed. I reread most of the posts to see if I missed anything. I did come up with one bit of advice.

Never post after happy hour. I found one of my posts that had the tell tale signs of too much gin and tonic.

Bottoms up!


flyguy

Never post after happy hour.

Better to post than to drive.

Never post after happy hour. I found one of my posts that had the tell tale signs of too much gin and tonic.

flyguy

...Let me guess--:scratch:...it was when you selected the title of the thread.


.

:funn:

Haha..I didn't want to drag the resurrected thread out earlier, but I was going to post "was it when you initiated the discussion?" Shelly's is better.

Score another one for shelly!

...Let me guess--:scratch:...it was when you selected the title of the thread.
.

Excellent! But I did not say which bottom. I unfortunately talked about several.



Bottoms up!
flyguy

FlyGuy - The end result is you have a property you love at a price you can live with. And good for you! Obviously, NOW is a great time to buy for some.

FlyGuy - The end result is you have a property you love at a price you can live with. And good for you! Obviously, NOW is a great time to buy for some.

Thanks, I appreciate that. My wife and I were watching the sunset over the Gulf a few weeks ago. It was unfortunately our last night there till the fall.

We were going over the rental revenue for the summer and it looks very good. We are pleased with the after tax ROI this thing will generate. I think it is working so well for two reasons. Renters want the same thing we wanted when we bought: Low floor, no elevator, easy parking, great view, and lots of room. I also structured the purchase to give some pretty good tax advantages as well.

After going over the numbers my wife tried to talk me into buying another condo, this time as a pure investment. I talked her into another rum and coke instead.

I am not bullish on real estate by any means. And I would not touch the cookie cutter stuff. We did not buy this condo as an investment, it is primarily our second home. But you can make money in this market if you buy the right stuff at the right price. I think I did my homework and would not change a thing.


Bottoms Up!
flyguy

Thanks, I appreciate that. My wife and I were watching the sunset over the Gulf a few weeks ago. It was unfortunately our last night there till the fall.

We were going over the rental revenue for the summer and it looks very good. I do not think you could buy an investment grade bond right now that would generate the after tax ROI this thing will throw off in the first year. I think it is working so well because renters want the same thing we wanted when we bought. Low floor, no elevator, easy parking, great view, and lots of room.

After going over the numbers my wife tried to talk me into buying another condo, this time as a pure investment. I talked her into another rum and coke instead.

I am not bullish on real estate by any means. And I would not touch the cookie cutter stuff. We did not buy this condo as an investment, it is primarily our second home. But you can make money in this market if you buy the right stuff at the right price. I think I did my homework and would not change a thing.


Bottoms Up!
flyguy

(1) What ROI did you arrive at?

(2) Have you two thought about AA?

.

(1) What ROI did you arrive at?

(2) Have you two thought about AA?

.

Reminds me of that part in "Tombstone" when the Earps are leaving town and Johnny Ringo says "smells like somebody died" and Curly Bill says "Jesus Johnny" while sort of cringeing, but can't help chuckling. I am cringeing...and chuckling.

(1) What ROI did you arrive at?

(2) Have you two thought about AA?

Shelly,

You are so quick on the post you caught me in mid edit. I removed the part about investment grade bond. I realized that it really depends on one's particular financial position and tax bracket It is hard to compare my after tax ROI with someone elses.

My after tax ROI would not really mean much if you did not know my tax bracket and the holding structure. Details I do not care to get into on an internet chat board. Lets just say I am happy with the ROI.

As far as question number 2. Loosen up and climb out of that bunker every once in a while. One's favorite cocktail waiting for the green flash at sunset. It does not get any better than that. Try to enjoy and have a little fun along the way...


Bottoms Up!
flyguy

One's favorite cocktail waiting for the green flash at sunset. It does not get any better than that. Try to enjoy and have a little fun along the way...

Good advice for any of us. Thanks for the reminder.

Great post, great thread flyguy.

Shelly,

Try to enjoy and have a little fun along the way...


Bottoms Up!
flyguy

...who do you think puts "fun" in fundamentals?

.

May Real Trend numbers out today in the Walton Sun. Sales down across the board in May. Sales of new single family homes down big. Condos down big. Lot sales down big. Volume down more than price, but prices continue to fall too.

I think there is a good way to go before we see the bottom.

I think we are closer to the bottom then the top.

"Notices
Hi sberry123, what's up? It looks like you haven't posted on SoWal in quite awhile. Please take a minute and ask a question, give your two cents, or just say hello in one of the forums. Thanks for joining in!"

Yes, I have not posted for a while. As I mentioned before I am on the Alabama beach side, but I have friends who own property in the Sowal area. The carnage continues on the Alabama side. We had a condo unit foreclose in our building, the owners took out the refrigerator, the washer and dryer and the microwave. All these appliances came with each condo when built! The developer of our condominium just filed for bankruptcy. What is sad to me is that this guy was an established developer who spent years buliding up his business. I signed preconstruction with him in August of 2000. We negotiated on the precon price a bit since he had almost 80% of the contracts he needed to get the construction loan. One guy bought ten precon units at my complex. His goal was to flip each unit for $10K more than precon prices after the building was completed in three years. I think he made a little more than $10K on each unit, but not much more than that amount.

I hear on this forum and else where about these flipper are and the problems they caused. Truth of the matter is that flipping has been going on for years. The developer wants to build a condo, the bank will not give the building loan to the developer until there is enough people who want to buy a unit. To entice the buyer of preconstruction, they developer will price the units lower than the current market. Once built, the precon buyer can sell at market price and make a little bit of money. It is a win win situation!

GREED KICKS:
There is a news article that states that some of the precon purchaser of several years ago with a now completed project was able to flip the condo unit(s) for much more than anticipated, some walking away with $100K.

EVERYONE WANTS IN:
Now there is a lottery just to get in on a precon deal, they sell out within 24 hours with checks being fedexed over night.

THE BANKS WANT IN:
Option Arms, pay not only interest, but not even principle and the loan balance increases monthly!

IS NOW THE TIME TO BUY?
I am curious to know if prices have stayed the same or gone down since flyguy decided to make the plung and buy. I wish I had a crystal ball, I am keeping my eyes on the prices, at some point I may jump back in!

I made up for not posting for a while huh

I think we are closer to the bottom then the top.

Why don't you call Barry Stafford "CEO of the Emerald Coast Association of Realtors"...according to an article in the FWB Mullet Wrapper he sees all and knows all.

-------------------------
"Even during the boom days of 2004 and 2005, Barry Stafford said Northwest Florida Realtors knew the rising wave of home sales would crest sooner or later.

"We all knew it was an anomaly, and it was terrifying to us," recalled Stafford, who is CEO of the Emerald Coast Association of Realtors. "We knew what goes up must come down."
------------------------

Then again, if what he says is true (i.e., in '04 to '05 we ALL knew prices would drop) I think the Realtors have some serious credibility issues to iron out.

{Personally, I this this guy is full of crap...just another feckless Rah-Rah RE fop} :roll:

What I find really pathetic is the FAR's desperate attempts to restart the RE frenzy again--good luck with that.

http://www.nwfdailynews.com/news/home_8857___article.html/percent_market.html

Why don't you call Barry Stafford "CEO of the Emerald Coast Association of Realtors"...according to an article in the FWB Mullet Wrapper he sees all and knows all.

-------------------------
"Even during the boom days of 2004 and 2005, Barry Stafford said Northwest Florida Realtors knew the rising wave of home sales would crest sooner or later.

"We all knew it was an anomaly, and it was terrifying to us," recalled Stafford, who is CEO of the Emerald Coast Association of Realtors. "We knew what goes up must come down."
------------------------

Then again, if what he says is true (i.e., in '04 to '05 we ALL knew prices would drop) I think the Realtors have some serious credibility issues to iron out.

{Personally, I this this guy is full of crap...just another feckless Rah-Rah RE fop} :roll:

What I find really pathetic is the FAR's desperate attempts to restart the RE frenzy again--good luck with that.

http://www.nwfdailynews.com/news/home_8857___article.html/percent_market.html

I think we are closer to the bottom then the top.

I think we are closer to the bottom then the top.

Inland areas seem to have corrected much earlier than those near the coast. So I guess it depends on where you're looking. Down on 30-A I really have not seen much of a correction yet. People still seem to be holding on for dear life! You're in RE Bobby, what are you seeing in terms of corrections on 30-A that has you convinced we're nearing a bottom?

Bottom is Mar 2010 - Sep 2010?

I'm still hoping to see signs for a bottom late this year / early next year but I'm seeing some interesting data points to suggest that may be too optimistic.

See the attached for context and a link to a very interesting internal Bank of America document that has some economic projections buried deep.

http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ODJkN2Q3NTY0MjAwYjJlNTY0NTJmMWEzZTI1OGZjZTg=

If you download the .pdf file that is linked and look at page 20, you will find BofA's "base case" projection for housing price appreciation. The chart appears to indicate that housing prices will continue to decline through March 2010 - September 2010 in the "base case". Their "extreme stress" case shows housing prices dropping through 2012.

Clearly, this is an overall view of the market and all real estate markets are "local", but given that this is an internal document of the largest home financing company in America, you have to give this some weight.

Inland areas seem to have corrected much earlier than those near the coast. So I guess it depends on where you're looking. Down on 30-A I really have not seen much of a correction yet. People still seem to be holding on for dear life! You're in RE Bobby, what are you seeing in terms of corrections on 30-A that has you convinced we're nearing a bottom?

I said we are closer to the bottom then the top. What am I seeing in terms of corrections on 30-A? I look at the whole market all day, everyday. I see radical adjustments daily across the board. The price change area in the hot sheets is the most active area on the MLS. Not sure where the bottom is but I do feel we are closer to the bottom then the top. I also feel the inland areas (Freeport) have not made the corrections the beaches have made.

I said we are closer to the bottom then the top. What am I seeing in terms of corrections on 30-A? I look at the whole market all day, everyday. I see radical adjustments daily across the board. The price change area in the hot sheets is the most active area on the MLS. Not sure where the bottom is but I do feel we are closer to the bottom then the top. I also feel the inland areas (Freeport) have not made the corrections the beaches have made.

I jumpstart my heart everyday with two cups of Joe and the MLS HOTSHEETS- new listings and the price changes are always the most interesting. Posted on my site every biz day by 7:00am for Destin- no registration required.

I'm still hoping to see signs for a bottom late this year / early next year but I'm seeing some interesting data points to suggest that may be too optimistic.

See the attached for context and a link to a very interesting internal Bank of America document that has some economic projections buried deep.

http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ODJkN2Q3NTY0MjAwYjJlNTY0NTJmMWEzZTI1OGZjZTg=

If you download the .pdf file that is linked and look at page 20, you will find BofA's "base case" projection for housing price appreciation. The chart appears to indicate that housing prices will continue to decline through March 2010 - September 2010 in the "base case". Their "extreme stress" case shows housing prices dropping through 2012.

Clearly, this is an overall view of the market and all real estate markets are "local", but given that this is an internal document of the largest home financing company in America, you have to give this some weight.

YoungFT, I think its important to note that page 20's graphs are addressing subprime and ALT-A loans. Realestate is local, and I don't see this projecting being accurate for our market.