Calling The Bottom

[sandybanks]

Re: The bottom has arrived

True story,

I have a buddy who bought a few condo's when this real estate thing was going strong and put his 20% down and decided he was going to be the next Donald.

To make a long story short, he had the bank come get the keys to a million dollar house down south and has went through well over a million dollars in the last few years trying to wait this market out to change.

Well that an a few Mercedes that he had to have and a few other things like vacations and what not.

Well anyway I was talking to him last night and he was saying he felt like he should end it all and kill himself. I asked him what the heck was he thinking. Be careful in buying real estate, the days in flipping a condo are gone with the Dinosaur's.

If you buy something let it be because you want the house to live in and not to make a profit, there are much easier ways to make a buck than to flip a condo that is on this beach. If you will wait you can get some killer buys no pun intended.

 

[fisher]

Re: The bottom has arrived

So they have the "pendings $" but they don't have the "closings $?" That's really odd ...or maybe they just don't want that stuff known.

If they do, like Oct '07 Pending was $45.5 million...and Oct '07 Closing was $40 million, I can do the percentage math for them.

BTW, thanks for the numbers.



.

You can get actual closings for Walton County in the Real Trend report printed every second or third Saturday in the Business section of the Walton Sun.

 

[fisher]

Re: The bottom has arrived

(Source: Emerald Coast Assoc. of Realtors)

2005
Oct - $28.2 million
Nov - $71.1 million
Dec - $19.7 million
2006
Jan - $23.1 million
Feb - $25.7 million
Mar - $28.0 million
**************

2006
Oct - $43.5 million
Nov - $39.5 million
Dec - $28.8 million
2007
Jan - $48.6 million
Feb - $66.2 million
Mar - $110.3 million
***************

2007
Oct - $45.4 million
Nov - $52.6 million
Dec - $39.3 million
2008
Jan - $40.7 million
Feb - $88.8 million
Mar - $84.3 million

Again, I post the numbers only to show an increase in activity during the last couple of months. This in no way indicates where we are on the curve.

I apologize that the numbers aren't side by side. I tried, but it screwed up and combined them.

Thanks for the info.

 

[ThirtyAGal]

Re: The bottom has arrived

Thats how I feel. I waited until I got a great deal on exactly what I wanted. There may well be more downside but I did not want to miss the boat on this buying opportunity. And what a view!

Flyguy

Hi Flyguy - Gin N Tonic on the deck overlooking the ocean at sunset? I have just separated from the Mr. and seriously think you could use a roommate to help share the expense of all those limes! Always thinking of others.....

 

[fisher]

Re: The bottom has arrived

a little insider data for you non-Realtors. In all of South Walton, including Miramar Bch, the pending sales for the last three months are as follows, for Residential Homes, Townhomes, and Condos, combined. Keep in mind that pending sales are simply listings which are under sales contracts. That doesn't necessarily mean that they will close. They may not. The only reason for me posting this data which is collected from Emerald Coast Assoc. of Realtors, is to show the increase in activity which has been buzzing lately. The data shows :

Pending Sales for Combined Residential Homes in South Walton:

2007
Sep - $48.5 million
Oct - $45.4 million
Nov - $52.6 million
Dec - $39.3 million

2008
Jan - $40.7 million
Feb - $88.8 million
Mar - $84.3 million

From the March Real Trend report in the Walton Sun today.

SFH homes sales unit volume down 9% year to date and dollar volume down 2% (average price up slightly year over year).

Condo sales unit volume down 70% and dollar volume down 76% (average price down slightly)

Lots sales volume down 23% and dollar volume down 7% (average price up)

Looks like unit sales continue to fall in all categories despite the increase in acitivity that the realtors are seeing, but prices seem to be stabilizing.

 

[Smiling JOe]

Re: The bottom has arrived

If you look only at the big picture, yes, volume is down year to date over 2007. However, if you break it down into areas, you will see that some places are seeing increases in quantity of sales compared to 2007. Real Trend doesn't show you those numbers.

One example - in South Walton, in the area from Mack Bayou thru Inlet Beach, quantity of Single Family Detached home sales are up 28% nver 2007, through the end of March, with 2007 having 71 sales and 2008 having 91 sales.

The Real Trend report is a good overall statistic, but by breaking up the sales into specific areas, you will see that there are hot spots for sales, as shown above. Remember that if there are hot spots which increase the overall average, there are also cold spots, which are under-performing when comparing 2008 to 2007.

 

[sandybanks]

Re: The bottom has arrived

When I was a little kid, I would watch Batman and Robin. Boy did I love that show, I got my own batman sticker to put on my chest, does anyone remember doing that? Anyway, I would watch the show and see how they could parachute down off a bldg. and all, so I decided to give it a try.

I got one of my mom's sheets and went to the back yard and climbed up one of these Austrian Pine trees. I figure if Batman could do it so could I.

I remember someone telling me you had to be up high enough so that your parachute would open so up that tree I went. I know what your thinking, but listen no one ever told me as a child that I was going to grow up and be an Astronaut.

Anyway I get up where I can see the top of my house and decided I was high enough for my parachute to open and let go a big yell and jumped. Boy was that fun, that is until I hit the bottom. I was down on the ground rolling around like a fish out of water trying to catch my breath. The thing is, some times hitting the bottom hurts but needless to say there is always a lesson learned.

I put away my old parachute that day and have not used it since. Yep, it felt good going high up in that tree but hitting the bottom sure did hurt.

 

[SHELLY]

Re: The bottom has arrived

When I was a little kid, I would watch Batman and Robin. Boy did I love that show, I got my own batman sticker to put on my chest, does anyone remember doing that? Anyway, I would watch the show and see how they could parachute down off a bldg. and all, so I decided to give it a try.

I got one of my mom's sheets and went to the back yard and climbed up one of these Austrian Pine trees. I figure if Batman could do it so could I.

I remember someone telling me you had to be up high enough so that your parachute would open so up that tree I went. I know what your thinking, but listen no one ever told me as a child that I was going to grow up and be an Astronaut.

Anyway I get up where I can see the top of my house and decided I was high enough for my parachute to open and let go a big yell and jumped. Boy was that fun, that is until I hit the bottom. I was down on the ground rolling around like a fish out of water trying to catch my breath. The thing is, some times hitting the bottom hurts but needless to say there is always a lesson learned.

I put away my old parachute that day and have not used it since. Yep, it felt good going high up in that tree but hitting that bottom sure did hurt.

That can be one analogy of what 'the bottom' will feel like, here's mine:

YouTube - Wile E. Coyote vs Road Runner


.

 

[sandybanks]

Re: The bottom has arrived

That can be one analogy of what 'the bottom' will feel like, here's mine:

http://youtube.com/watch?v=hz65AOjabtM&feature=related


.

I can't top that one. Thank you for putting a smile on my face. And yes that is when we will know that we have hit the bottom.

 

[sunspotbaby]

Re: The bottom has arrived

That can be one analogy of what 'the bottom' will feel like, here's mine:

http://youtube.com/watch?v=hz65AOjabtM&feature=related


.

I'm glad you posted this: I haven't seen the RR in years!

I have no relevant comment on Real Estate, but you guys are an endless supply of useful information.