Is JOE worth buying ???

Is the current amount of traffic to the airport really 1/2 of what it was in 2000?

With 800k acres of property in one of the 3 mega-states, St Joe will likely be around selling chunks of land here, exchanging for new land elsewhere, long after everyone on this board has had their ashes sprinkled. St Joe, is reacting to the business cycle.

exactly right. And, that is why I get so angry with our local government officials. St Joe is watching out for St Joe...we need some leadership from the local level to watch out for Walton County.

If Growth Management laws had been followed properly, we would not have all these empty, unfinished condos and housing projects around here most of which were "jump started" by the cache of St Joe.

Now, St Joe will sell to "someone who is better able to manage a resort" and move on to the airport project...leaving in their wake some nice developments like WaterColor, but in the long run, leaving a very unstable situation.

I am not blaming St Joe--after all they are corporate creatures --that is their nature--I am blaming the local officials and all of us who do not demand more from the officials we elect.

It is frustrating

Is the current amount of traffic to the airport really 1/2 of what it was in 2000?

no passenger traffic is down 3,000 total enplanements when comparing FYE 2006 to FYE 2000 (357,510 in 2000 to 354,949 in 2006) - can be found at http://www.pcairport.com/airportinfo_stats.htm and at least partially confirmed here http://haas.uwf.edu/tourism/archive/Airport/Airport_May07.pdf


Blatantly misstating facts in an op-ed piece to support your particular opinion is egregious.

i do recognize that google is difficult to use, but come on this lady is apparently a professor

She could be going by number of daily flights. Post-9/11, the airlines consolidated a larger number of small commuter jet flights into fewer flights with larger planes.

As for condescending, from other things she's written, her family has longtime Panhandle roots back to the early 1800s, and she's proud of that. Still has family in Marianna too.

excellent point beachmouse...that is a possibility... but i don't buy it.

the general trend during the last few years for the airlines has actually been the introduction of smaller aircraft that are more fuel efficient & have fewer seats - an airplane's "load factor" or the percentage of seats which are filled during each flight is of paramount importance to operate successfully & consequently they parked larger aircraft & used smaller. with that being said...the aforementioned are generalities and may or may not be applicable to the PCB airport.

The "Airport" is the only arrow left in its quiver, they've got no other choice than to fight for it to the death.

.

That is one BIG ARROW. Looks like the fight is over. http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/071010/20071010006151.html?.v=2

Do people realy think we will have the only unsuccessful International Airport in the USA? Do people realy believe that NO large Industry, involving technology, Shipping, manufacturing, Amusement, ect will be established around our New International Airport and Beaches? We will have no new people flying in to are area due to better rates and a more central location? St Joe has made allot of bad moves but the Airport will cover many sins.

00seer00

That is one BIG ARROW. Looks like the fight is over. http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/071010/20071010006151.html?.v=2

Do people realy think we will have the only unsuccessful International Airport in the USA? Do people realy believe that NO large Industry, involving technology, Shipping, manufacturing, Amusement, ect will be established around our New International Airport and Beaches? We will have no new people flying in to are area due to better rates and a more central location? St Joe has made allot of bad moves but the Airport will cover many sins.

00seer00

Oh, I BELIEVE it will happen. Absolutely. These days I'm just less inclined to want it to be that way, and to have the area "discovered" by those outside the traditional visitors, trampled on, etc.

I do believe in the free market, but the more time I spend in SoWal the more I wish that it would remain our little (relatively) low-key piece of paradise. It is NOT what it was when Diane Roberts' family was settling in the Panhandle, and not even what it was five years ago, but the airport is just going to speed things up. I look around the rest of my home state and I wonder why we would want so much growth and industry in such a lovely place. I think that's really what Diane Roberts is saying. I would love for my property values to increase ... but really, the airport is important only to people who already are property owners. There is no great demand for it. St. Joe and the airport backers are hoping to create demand. There is a big difference.

I think eventually there WILL be a demand -- population growth guarantees it. But why start the process now? Because St. Joe wants to, that's why.

and being the corporate creatures that they are, they create demand to make money...they do not really care about the long term impact on the land and the people.

St Joe has made allot of bad moves but the Airport will cover many sins.
00seer00

....or uncover many more??


.

the general trend during the last few years for the airlines has actually been the introduction of smaller aircraft that are more fuel efficient & have fewer seats - an airplane's "load factor" or the percentage of seats which are filled during each flight is of paramount importance to operate successfully & consequently they parked larger aircraft & used smaller. with that being said...the aforementioned are generalities and may or may not be applicable to the PCB airport.

I can say that in the local market, there was definitely a move to bigger planes/fewer flights into the area after 9/11. NWA used to fly RJ commuter jets into VPS. Now, they're bigger planes and fewer flight options. I wish they'd go back to the smaller planes because not only did you end up with better connecting flight options than what you get now, the commuter jets also had more leg room because of a quirk in pilot union contracts. (the smaller planes were only allowed to have X number of passengers even though they were designed to safely fit in a couple more rows of seats)

I can say that in the local market, there was definitely a move to bigger planes/fewer flights into the area after 9/11. NWA used to fly RJ commuter jets into VPS. Now, they're bigger planes and fewer flight options. I wish they'd go back to the smaller planes because not only did you end up with better connecting flight options than what you get now, the commuter jets also had more leg room because of a quirk in pilot union contracts. (the smaller planes were only allowed to have X number of passengers even though they were designed to safely fit in a couple more rows of seats)

While as a long legged scooterbug I am always for more leg room - I've found the two phrases "commuter jets" and "more leg room" are rarely combined - at least in my regional flights leaving out of VPS and PNS. I keep asking for folks' opinions because I haven't flown out of PC, but my usual AA, NW, and (when there is no other option) Delta flights to hubs are on 1x2 planes where my head barely clears the ceiling (I'm considered a midget in my family) and my purse almost doesn't fit in the overhead bin.

I am quite interested in seeing the ideas and design behind the first post 9-11 airport and after the great renovation to VPS I'm all for new and updated airports, but while folks say the PC airport/runway improvement is needed, it seems that what is being built is a white elephant, not a needed upgrade or improvement.

The improved leg room was specific the RJ jetcraft under NWA's old contract rules, and was a quirk in the system I haven't seen happen in other types of aircarft. I'm not overly tall (only 5'9") but a lot of that height is from femur, so I tend to pick up on fairly small differences in aircraft leg space.

The worst I ever dealt with was a Delta 767 where they'd added as many rows of extra seats as weight limits allowed, and my row was so squished that, even though the seat in front of me was upright, my kneecaps were fully embedded in the pocked that contains the Skymall catalog and barf bags, and I had to angle my legs upward so that my feet were not flat on the cabin floor.

From Motley Fool:

Joe Admits Failure
By Seth Jayson October 9, 2007

I'm always amazed at the brazenly upbeat language foundering companies will use when attempting to pretty up their rough realities. Mercifully, some of the homebuilding industry has lacked this urge. Certain executives have offered relatively frank assessments of housing's rancid prospects; D.R. Horton's (NYSE: DHI) CEO actually said that 2007 would "suck."

You'll find no such refreshing honesty this morning -- at least, not in the verbiage from (former) Florida real estate developer St. Joe (NYSE: JOE). Here's what the firm hopes naive and lazy business reporters will write: "The St. Joe Company to Accelerate Value Creation."

Here's what those reporters should write: "Saint Joe cuts dividend, decides to get out of core businesses, and needs to sell furniture to heat its house."

I love the sleight of hand here. Suddenly, the stuff that provided all the earnings juice over the past few years -- like, say, the company's housing developments -- is newly classified as "non-core." The new new core is, it appears, no longer developing anything, but reverting to being a "supplier of entitled land."

So, Joe admits its failure as an "end-to-end" developer. What does that leave investors? A fancified land-flipper, it appears. But St. Joe's already giving a hint of just how great that's (not) going to go, announcing that it has 100,000 acres of "rural land" (i.e., stuff no one wants) on the block, along with 1,200 "developed" home sites and 190 homes that are "priced to sell."

"Priced to sell?" Doesn't get more desperate than that. And somehow, I don't think a public admission like this puts Joe in a strong bargaining position. Talk about playing a weak hand. Of course, it's not like the company has much choice. Saint Joe also admits that it's had to resort to meetings with creditors in order to avoid potential debt defaults in the years to come.

In other words, Joe's value to investors increasingly relies on guessing how much its pile of land is worth -- and when. Given that fewer people seem interested in buying it, it won't be easy to figure out that figure. My back-of-the-envelope guess? It's less than the current price.

Goofer, I think the answer to your question on this thread may now be self evident. Shelly was long CROX at $70 in September (whilst I was urging a short trade at that point in time due to CROX announcement that they were now getting into womens and childrens clothes). I don't recall Shelly blessing getting long any JOE in the low 30's and high 20's either...

Survey says?? CROX now $28. Joe now $36.

Goofer, what are you buying now. Are you trimming your longs/gains on the "fed cat bounce' theory?? I've been buying the hell out of RUTH (Ruth's chris) here this past week. I haven't made any money yet, but I have a lot of historical data that says the time to buy discretionary restaurant stocks has historically been in the first inning of a recession, not in the middle.. time will tell - if we're going into a deep deep recession, RUTH will not work, so it has some degree of risk for sure.

SHELLY

Why don't you share your ideas with us? We have been confident enough to tell the board what we do so all can see and respond accordingly. Do you lack confidence or conviction? Be brave and share.

Just peaking at the JOE ticker and see that it closed at $39.90 today, 52% above the $26 low, only three months ago. It is interesting to note that anyone who bought at the bottom, are sitting on great paper gains at the moment, in almost no time. I'm wondering how many people actually nailed this one. I'm even more curious to know how many who missed this 52% run up in only 90 days, are waiting to buy a property in SoWal, thinking that they can time the market.

I owned JOE at $26. I also owned it at $50 on the way there.

I owned JOE at $26. I also owned it at $50 on the way there.

funny.

At least you didn't buy it at $80....so what's your exit strategy?


.

funny.

At least you didn't buy it at $80....so what's your exit strategy?


.

He only admitted to 26 and 50, but never said anything about 80. Maybe he is shy.

Too bad I sold my YHOO shares last year. -- up nearly 50% today.

Shel, are you going to sell your CROX down here, or are you going to buy some more. Having covered my short on it, I was thinking of going long ...

dont go long on CROX. They were a fad, just like Jellies.

funny.

At least you didn't buy it at $80....so what's your exit strategy?


.

Nope. I bought at $52.

I?m terrible at timing tops and bottoms, so I usually just buy and hold -- that goes for beach houses, too. It?s too easy to get whipsawed trading stocks.

That said, if JOE ever approaches $50 I might sell and buy some more ACAS if it stays below $40. I like dividends. I also like gin, so I might just fill my trailer with cases of Beefeater and forget about the ACAS.

Shel, are you going to sell your CROX down here, or are you going to buy some more. Having covered my short on it, I was thinking of going long ...

Bob,

You must have been on vacation during Oct/Nov:

[ame="http://sowal.com/bb/showpost.php?p=311381&postcount=18"]SoWal Beaches Forum - View Single Post - New developments in PCB?[/ame]

I've been out

Looks like a JOE vs CROX horserace is sizing up. I'd bet on CROX, but that's history now and I've moved on.

.

good trade Mischelle, good trade. I didn't realize you had such tight stops on it, because I thought you were a big believer in the 'story'. I may now from time to time refer to you as the Oracle of Freeport.

good trade Mischelle, good trade. I didn't realize you had such tight stops on it, because I thought you were a big believer in the 'story'. I may now from time to time refer to you as the Oracle of Freeport.

Wonder what he'll refer to you as now...from time to time.