Calling The Bottom

[Smiling JOe]

Re: The bottom has arrived

Shelly, yes, closed sales are known for Feb and Mar. However, it typically takes about 30 days for most contracts to come to close, so showing the pendings is simply nothing more than a way of showing the increase in contracts being written, and if the Mar pendings do go to close, they would most likely be closing around April. I thought I was clear in my statement regarding my post being nothing more than something showing increases in activity lately. If I was not clear in that, I apologize. I do track closed sales, too.

 

[SHELLY]

Re: The bottom has arrived

If I was not clear in that, I apologize. I do track closed sales, too.

No, you were clear about the pending. But I was wondering how those "pendings" actually turned into sales--given the tightening credit situation. So what percentage of these pendings are turning into closed sales? (100%? 80%?)



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[Smiling JOe]

Re: The bottom has arrived

Shelly, I don't think that information of conversions of pendings to closed sales is currently available from ECAR. That sure would give us better data to project future closings, if taken with other knowledge such as that you mention, the tightening credit market, tougher appraisals, etc. I will speak with Geoff at ECAR tomorrow and see if there is a way to make that information available. We are limited by the Solid Earth software, but it may just be that the info is available but not currently set up to access it.

 

[dunelover]

Re: The bottom has arrived

My intent was to show the increase in activity during the recent months, rather than comparing quarters. I don't think the contracts written in Feb and Mar were related to Spring Break in any way.

Thanks for the clarification.

Shelly, I don't think that information of conversions of pendings to closed sales is currently available from ECAR. That sure would give us better data to project future closings, if taken with other knowledge such as that you mention, the tightening credit market, tougher appraisals, etc. I will speak with Geoff at ECAR tomorrow and see if there is a way to make that information available. We are limited by the Solid Earth software, but it may just be that the info is available but not currently set up to access it.

SJ--You certainly seem to really stay on top of this market. I am impressed by your willingness to get even more information to help your customers. It seems a potential buyer would be smart to look you up.

 

[SHELLY]

Re: The bottom has arrived

Shelly, I don't think that information of conversions of pendings to closed sales is currently available from ECAR. That sure would give us better data to project future closings, if taken with other knowledge such as that you mention, the tightening credit market, tougher appraisals, etc. I will speak with Geoff at ECAR tomorrow and see if there is a way to make that information available. We are limited by the Solid Earth software, but it may just be that the info is available but not currently set up to access it.

So they have the "pendings $" but they don't have the "closings $?" That's really odd ...or maybe they just don't want that stuff known.

If they do, like Oct '07 Pending was $45.5 million...and Oct '07 Closing was $40 million, I can do the percentage math for them.

BTW, thanks for the numbers.



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[Smiling JOe]

Re: The bottom has arrived

Thank you, dunelover. I come from a background of open sharing of information. By sharing information with other agents (yes, they are my competition, but they are also people with whom I closely work) and customers, we all are more informed, and can make better purchasing decisions, and see possible trends in the market. Remember that statistics are only a bunch of numbers. Understanding how the numbers are compiled and asking questions regarding why sales have a spike or a huge dip, you really don't have a complete grasp of what the stats mean. I encourage questions with all of the stats I give.

 

[sandybanks]

Re: The bottom has arrived

If I had to pick which place to put my money, the market or real estate, I would of course pick real estate. Having said that, it would not be on the beach and it sure would not be a condo.

We will see shortages in food within the next couple of years. If you have money then you may want to think about making your home solar efficient and having a place to grow vegetables and raise your own meat.

This economy is going to tank and we are in my opinion not even close to seeing the bottom. But then I am not that smart, I am sure you probably know more than me when it comes to these sorts of things.

 

[Smiling JOe]

Re: The bottom has arrived

So they have the "pendings $" but they don't have the "closings $?" That's really odd ...or maybe they just don't want that stuff known.

If they do, like Oct '07 Pending was $45.5 million...and Oct '07 Closing was $40 million, I can do the percentage math for them.

BTW, thanks for the numbers.



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That is not at all what I meant. What we don't currently have the ability to do is to know the quantity and $ value, and percentage of pendings which are converted into close, and the length of time it takes them to close, vs, the pendings which don't close, for whatever reason. You can track an individual listing to see if it goes pending, then is back on the market by the same seller, or if it actually closes. To my knowledge, we don't have a way of doing that on more than one property at a time.

By simply looking at the closed sales, and knowing the length of time it takes to close a property, you might have an idea of what percentage go to closing, but with new pendings coming on, and the pendings and closings occurring on a continual daily basis, the numbers might be better if you had a 90 day moving average. For example, a property going pending on Mar 29, might not close in April, and might carry over to May, but if you are counting on all Mar pendings closing in April, your numbers will be off.

 

[Smiling JOe]

Re: The bottom has arrived

We will see shortages in food within the next couple of years. If you have money then you may want to think about making your home solar efficient and having a place to grow vegetables and raise your own meat.

So you will be needing to buy some farmland? You might want to try the better soils in lower AL and GA, but watch out for the drought and price of diesel fuel.

 

[SHELLY]

Re: The bottom has arrived

So you will be needing to buy some farmland? You might want to try the better soils in lower AL and GA, but watch out for the drought and price of diesel fuel.

Now is a great time to buy farmland!

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