Re: "...(read "coastal expert")..." They've all moved away from what I hear.
But now that I think about it, we have a bunch right here on SoWal.;-)
I basically agree with your premise above. And I'm glad you pointed out the idea of establishing VALID "reference" points (similar topography and all). That was the point of my 20 feet of "additional erosion" comment.
There's at least one coastal engineering firm in Destin, and others will probably pop up out of the woodwork if they were needed. ;-).